Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Mar 20 · 16:00 AFAS Stadion, Malines
KV Mechelen 14th · 6 pts · 8 played
First leg0–2 VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel68 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
KV Mechelen—%
Draw—%
Charleroi—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Malines)

Forecast from 5 Mar

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for KV Mechelen and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

KV MechelenCharleroi
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
18 AttackIn forecast 43
23 DefenceIn forecast 50
20 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

KV MechelenCharleroi
1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
38% Scored inContext 100%
13% Clean sheetsContext 50%
11.13 ShotsContext 16.75
3.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
28% On target shareContext 34%
7.88 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
68% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.86 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.88
5.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.00 BlocksContext 4.57
3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
58% Save rateContext 79%
47% PossessionIn forecast 57%
407 PassesContext 496
317 Accurate passesContext 421
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.55 Team ratingContext 7.10
12.25 FoulsContext 10.13
13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
0.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
+0.22 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
40% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.90 ShotsContext 16.80
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
28% On target shareContext 34%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
65% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 11%
2.63 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40
5.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.40 BlocksContext 4.50
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
60% Save rateContext 83%
47% PossessionIn forecast 58%
400 PassesContext 484
311 Accurate passesContext 411
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.55 Team ratingContext 7.08
10.90 FoulsContext 10.10
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
  • W11 OctH · St. Truiden4–31.3 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Lommel United0–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepH · Anderlecht0–11.1 xPts
  • L5 SepH · KVC Westerlo0–41.7 xPts
  • D29 AugA · RAAL La Louvière2–21.3 xPts
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel68 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
KV Mechelen Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Mar7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km68 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways176 km175 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

KV Mechelen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs St. Truiden (H) 4–3, 11 Oct
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà 44M. Eerdhuijzen 20K. Corbanie
7T. Koudou 30Marco Decherf 6F. Hammar 23S. Michez
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman
28B. Boersma
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
KV Mechelen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

KV Mechelen · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentKV MechelenCharleroi
Lommel United D 0–0 A W 1–0 A
Standard Liege D 3–3 H W 1–0 A
Points2 of 6 · 1.00 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 KV Mechelen wins0 draws2 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 20%
  • 22 Aug 2026Charleroi2–0KV Mechelen
  • 7 Dec 2025KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi
  • 28 Sep 2025Charleroi0–2KV Mechelen
  • 27 Dec 2023Charleroi3–1KV Mechelen
  • 11 Nov 2023KV Mechelen1–0Charleroi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KV MechelenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.132.00
Conceded per game 2.130.88
Match goals 3.252.88
Over 1.5 75%63%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 38%50%
Clean sheets 13%50%
Failed to score 63%0%
Games88
KV MechelenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.101.60
Conceded per game 2.101.00
Match goals 3.202.60
Over 1.5 70%60%
Over 2.5 50%40%
Over 3.5 50%40%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KV MechelenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won4.635.50
Corners conceded4.254.38
Match total8.889.8810.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 10.538% 3/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards1.501.13
Opponent cards2.131.38
Match total3.632.513.36
Over 3.550% 4/825% 2/8
Over 4.550% 4/80% 0/8
KV MechelenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won4.206.50
Corners conceded4.104.70
Match total8.3011.2010.01
Over 8.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 10.530% 3/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.501.40
Opponent cards2.101.40
Match total3.602.803.36
Over 3.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 4.540% 4/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

KV Mechelen8 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
1 2 16-30
3 6 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 2 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 7 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
3 2 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Antwerp Mar 2016:00 OH Leuven Union St. Gilloise Mar 2016:00 KVC Westerlo Cercle Brugge Mar 2016:00 KV Mechelen Charleroi Mar 2016:00 Anderlecht Standard Liege Mar 2016:00 Club Brugge KV Gent Mar 2016:00 Zulte Waregem Kortrijk Mar 2016:00 St. Truiden SK Beveren Mar 2016:00 RAAL La Louvière Genk Mar 2016:00