Panathinaikos
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Panathinaikos had 7 days of rest, AS Roma 4 and had to travel 1,049 km.
Away travel1,049 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Panathinaikos22%
Draw23%
AS Roma54%
Panathinaikos25%
Draw26%
AS Roma49%
Panathinaikos22%
Draw23%
AS Roma54%
Panathinaikos17%
Draw21%
AS Roma62%
Panathinaikos22%
Draw24%
AS Roma53%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Athens)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 36
Team strength
Panathinaikos
AS Roma
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
48
AttackIn forecast
72
50
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PanathinaikosAS Roma
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
86%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
15.71
ShotsContext
13.86
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.29
55%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.60
OffsidesContext
3.20
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.57
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
3.43
BlocksContext
2.43
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
70%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
476
PassesContext
487
398
Accurate passesContext
408
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.00
FoulsContext
14.14
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.00
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
37%
On target shareContext
36%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.33
9.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
2.56
BlocksContext
3.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
86%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
475
PassesContext
492
390
Accurate passesContext
412
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.40
FoulsContext
13.30
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Panathinaikos
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,249 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
AS Roma
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,049 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Panathinaikos |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,049 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,249 km | 1,051 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Panathinaikos
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
5A. Touba
14E. Palmer-Brown
15S. Ingason
77G. Kyriakopoulos
11A. Bakasetas
6E. Siopis
3G. Katris
9A. Zaroury
20V. Taborda
72M. Pantović
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
95P. Gollini(G)
24J. Ziółkowski
23G. Mancini
87D. Ghilardi
12K. Tsimikas
8N. El Aynaoui
4B. Cristante
61N. Pisilli
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Panathinaikos
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Panathinaikos+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AS Roma+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Panathinaikos · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Panathinaikos | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Plzen | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Panathinaikos | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.43 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Panathinaikos | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.20 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 30% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 30% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Panathinaikos | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.86 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.14 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Panathinaikos | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.00 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.90 | 4.10 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 4.13
Red cards0.22league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls26.0league 24.2
Penalties0.39league 0.36
Home wins50%league 51%
Panathinaikos1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Aug 25H · Samsunspor2–12
AS RomaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Panathinaikos7 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
AS Roma7 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 17 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures UEFA Europa League
View all fixtures →
Nottingham Forest
Ferencvarosi TC
40
Aston Villa
Red Bull Salzburg
32
Lille
SC Freiburg
10
Lyon
PAOK
42
VfB Stuttgart
BSC Young Boys
32
FC Porto
Rangers
31
Celtic
Utrecht
42
FC Midtjylland
Dinamo Zagreb
20
GO Ahead Eagles
SC Braga
00
Real Betis
Feyenoord
21
FC Basel 1893
Plzen
01
FCSB
Fenerbahce
11
Ludogorets
Nice
10
FK Crvena Zvezda
Celta Vigo
11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Bologna
03
Panathinaikos
AS Roma
11
Sturm Graz
Brann
10
Genk
Malmo FF
21