Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 16). Atalanta usually keep the ball (54% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Pisa had 6.2 days of rest, Atalanta 6 and had to travel 229 km.
Away travel229 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 3
Pisa13%
Draw22%
Atalanta65%
Pisa13%
Draw21%
Atalanta66%
Pisa13%
Draw22%
Atalanta65%
Pisa10%
Draw19%
Atalanta71%
Pisa13%
Draw21%
Atalanta66%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 49
Team strength
Pisa
Atalanta
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
15
AttackIn forecast
48
21
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaAtalanta
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
45%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.25
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
25%
On target shareContext
29%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.15
71%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.10
Shots allowedContext
10.45
4.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.21
BlocksContext
3.00
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
71%
Save rateContext
77%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
305
PassesContext
482
231
Accurate passesContext
411
76%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.80
FoulsContext
10.95
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.60
ShotsContext
14.50
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
27%
On target shareContext
31%
9.13
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
78%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.75
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.70
BlocksContext
3.22
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
72%
Save rateContext
81%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
300
PassesContext
465
225
Accurate passesContext
390
75%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.30
FoulsContext
11.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km969 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Atalanta
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel229 km375 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 229 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 969 km | 375 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
26Francesco Coppola
5S. Canestrelli
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
6M. Marin
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
9H. Meister
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
4I. Hien
42G. Scalvini
47L. Bernasconi
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
6Y. Musah
59N. Zalewski
17C. De Ketelaere
9G. Scamacca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Atalanta+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.60points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-6
- Scored
- 0.10
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atalanta · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Como | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 57 · 0.63 per game | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Aug 2025Atalanta1–1Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 20% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Pisa | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.53 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.37 | 4.16 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.16 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 8/19 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 5/19 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.45 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 3.00 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 0% 0/20 | |
| Pisa | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 10.30 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.60 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.85
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 37%
Fouls25.3league 25.7
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins41%league 37%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Atalanta3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Feb 25H · Cagliari0–01
- L30 Aug 24A · Inter0–42
- W20 Aug 23A · Sassuolo2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa20 games · scored 15 · conceded 30
3
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
4
7
76-90
Atalanta20 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
4
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
5
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
