PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel127 kmRest days3.6 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
PSV Eindhoven—%
Draw—%
Telstar—%
Weather (Eindhoven)
Forecast from 28 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for PSV Eindhoven and Telstar. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
PSV Eindhoven
+1.16
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.27xG against1.11
-
Trend
PSV Eindhoven
80%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
PSV Eindhoven
1.5
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Telstar
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.65xG against2.16
-
Alert
Telstar
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
PSV Eindhoven
+1.16
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.27xG against1.11
-
Trend
PSV Eindhoven
2.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
PSV Eindhoven
80%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Alert
PSV Eindhoven
1.5
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Telstar
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Telstar
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.65xG against2.16
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
PSV EindhovenTelstar
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
60
AttackIn forecast
24
64
DefenceIn forecast
13
32
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenTelstar
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
-0.59
100%
Scored inContext
56%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
19.44
ShotsContext
12.00
7.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
37%
On target shareContext
26%
13.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
71%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
10.89
Shots allowedContext
16.78
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
3.29
BlocksContext
5.25
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.13
67%
Save rateContext
71%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
573
PassesContext
400
508
Accurate passesContext
323
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.70
9.78
FoulsContext
10.44
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
12.89
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
1.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.16
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.30
ShotsContext
11.50
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
26%
11.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
67%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.70
Shots allowedContext
16.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
3.56
BlocksContext
5.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
71%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
526
PassesContext
394
464
Accurate passesContext
314
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.50
FoulsContext
11.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
WLWLL
Rest3.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km283 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
Telstar
LDLDL
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel127 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec | 8.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 4 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 127 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 283 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Last XI · not confirmed
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić
4A. Obispo
2L. Geertruida
8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior
24K. Sano
35A. Santos
20G. Til
27D. Man
21S. Mijnans
Telstar
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
3G. Alders
17N. Rossen
10T. Owusu
23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer
11N. Þórisson
42A. Martha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Telstar
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Telstar · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Twente | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Ajax | W 3–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 2 of 15 · 0.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws2 Telstar wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Mar 2026Telstar3–1PSV Eindhoven
- 30 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 3.11 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 89% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 56% | |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 3.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.86 | 6.75 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 10.88 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.34 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 6.75 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 10.88 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.40 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven9 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
4
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Telstar9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4
4
0-15
5
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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