Eredivisie Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 13 · 15:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 2nd · 20 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel116 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
AZ Alkmaar—%
Draw—%
NEC Nijmegen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Alkmaar)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AZ AlkmaarNEC Nijmegen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
47 Current StrengthIn forecast 32
52 AttackIn forecast 37
49 DefenceIn forecast 33
43 Form indexContext 18
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—
Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ AlkmaarNEC Nijmegen
2.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
2.34 xGVia Att/Def 2.16
1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.49
89% Scored inContext 89%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
17.33 ShotsContext 15.11
6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22
38% On target shareContext 28%
12.38 Shots in the boxContext 9.78
68% Box shareContext 64%
13% ConversionContext 11%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.57
9.00 Shots allowedContext 11.56
3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
2.88 BlocksContext 3.11
1.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
63% Save rateContext 58%
59% PossessionIn forecast 60%
536 PassesContext 488
460 Accurate passesContext 401
86% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.59
11.89 FoulsContext 11.33
11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11
1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.94
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.84
80% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.90 ShotsContext 12.00
6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
37% On target shareContext 32%
11.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.60
65% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.43
9.70 Shots allowedContext 12.70
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
2.89 BlocksContext 2.80
2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10
68% Save rateContext 59%
59% PossessionIn forecast 52%
543 PassesContext 442
466 Accurate passesContext 358
86% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.44
12.40 FoulsContext 11.70
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts
NEC Nijmegen
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel116 km6,605 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
  • D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
  • D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
  • D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
AZ Alkmaar NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 23Moderate · 33
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km116 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways184 km6,605 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 51 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one66.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir
9M. Meerdink
NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm
35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers
99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton
30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
AZ Alkmaar Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
NEC Nijmegen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.75
NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

OpponentAZ AlkmaarNEC Nijmegen
Cambuur D 2–2 A L 0–3 A
Feyenoord L 0–2 A L 1–3 H
Telstar W 1–0 H L 1–2 H
Willem II D 1–1 H W 4–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles W 5–2 H D 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard W 2–0 A D 2–2 H
Points11 of 18 · 1.83 per game5 of 18 · 0.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws3 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.00 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%
  • 31 Jan 2026AZ Alkmaar1–3NEC Nijmegen
  • 28 Sep 2025NEC Nijmegen2–1AZ Alkmaar
  • 29 Mar 2025NEC Nijmegen3–3AZ Alkmaar
  • 17 Aug 2024AZ Alkmaar1–0NEC Nijmegen
  • 6 Dec 2023AZ Alkmaar1–2NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AZ AlkmaarNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 2.221.67
Conceded per game 1.111.78
Match goals 3.333.44
Over 1.5 89%100%
Over 2.5 44%78%
Over 3.5 44%56%
Both teams scored 56%89%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 11%11%
Games99
AZ AlkmaarNEC NijmegenForecast
Scored per game 2.001.10
Conceded per game 1.202.20
Match goals 3.203.30
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 20%0%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AZ AlkmaarNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won8.004.88
Corners conceded3.673.75
Match total11.678.6310.39
Over 8.578% 7/950% 4/8
Over 9.567% 6/938% 3/8
Over 10.567% 6/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.221.33
Opponent cards1.441.78
Match total2.663.112.77
Over 3.533% 3/956% 5/9
Over 4.522% 2/90% 0/9
AZ AlkmaarNEC NijmegenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.304.00
Corners conceded3.603.88
Match total10.907.8810.39
Over 8.570% 7/1038% 3/8
Over 9.560% 6/1025% 2/8
Over 10.560% 6/1025% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.701.50
Opponent cards1.901.40
Match total3.602.902.77
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

AZ Alkmaar9 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 2 76-90
NEC Nijmegen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
6 2 76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
3 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
6 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Utrecht Fortuna Sittard Dec 1215:30 Heerenveen GO Ahead Eagles Dec 1217:45 PEC Zwolle Excelsior Dec 1220:00 PSV Eindhoven Telstar Dec 1311:15 Willem II ADO Den Haag Dec 1313:30 Groningen Feyenoord Dec 1313:30 AZ Alkmaar NEC Nijmegen Dec 1315:45 Twente Sparta Rotterdam Dec 1316:00 Ajax Cambuur Dec 1319:00