RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
5th · 47 pts · 26 played
DDWWL
5–0Full time
1899 Hoffenheim
3rd · 50 pts · 26 played
WDLWD
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 5 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 6.2 and had to travel 340 km.
Away travel340 kmRest days5 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
RB Leipzig52%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim25%
RB Leipzig46%
Draw26%
1899 Hoffenheim27%
RB Leipzig51%
Draw23%
1899 Hoffenheim26%
RB Leipzig44%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim33%
RB Leipzig50%
Draw24%
1899 Hoffenheim25%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 103
Team strength
RB Leipzig1899 Hoffenheim
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
76
AttackIn forecast
46
53
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB Leipzig1899 Hoffenheim
1.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
88%
Scored inContext
85%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
15.27
ShotsContext
13.81
5.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.15
37%
On target shareContext
37%
11.04
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
72%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.06
OffsidesContext
2.24
11.54
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.04
3.40
BlocksContext
3.54
2.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
66%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
497
PassesContext
462
422
Accurate passesContext
373
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.31
FoulsContext
13.27
9.96
Fouls sufferedContext
8.96
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.10
ShotsContext
15.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
38%
On target shareContext
38%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
82%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.50
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.56
BlocksContext
3.67
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
61%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
533
PassesContext
450
453
Accurate passesContext
360
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.20
FoulsContext
11.40
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel340 km226 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 6.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 340 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 729 km | 226 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.8 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
49Y. Diomande
40Rômulo
10B. Gruda
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
5O. Kabak
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
29B. Toure
6G. Prömel
18W. Burger
22A. Prass
19T. Lemperle
11F. Asllani
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-3
- Scored
- 2.23
- Conceded
- 1.38
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
1.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 4–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 1–5 AL 1–4 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 HW 4–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | W 3–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 5–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 47 of 75 · 1.88 per game | 47 of 75 · 1.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 RB Leipzig wins1 draws3 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.44
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets22% · 11%
- 8 Nov 20251899 Hoffenheim3–1RB Leipzig
- 5 Apr 2025RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 23 Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim4–3RB Leipzig
- 3 May 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1RB Leipzig
- 16 Dec 2023RB Leipzig3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 29 Apr 2023RB Leipzig1–01899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.85 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 3.38 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 65% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 15% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| RB Leipzig | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 5.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.23 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 10.77 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 16/24 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 14/24 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.46 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 3.42 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 11/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 6/26 | 19% 5/26 | |
| RB Leipzig | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 11.90 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.60 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.71
Red cards0.11league 0.18
Cards 5+40%league 38%
Fouls20.4league 20.5
Penalties0.17league 0.36
Home wins41%league 45%
RB Leipzig12 with this referee
Record7-2-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W1 Nov 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–11
- W13 Sep 25A · FSV Mainz 051–00
- D8 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg0–03
- W26 Oct 24H · SC Freiburg3–13
- D14 Sep 24H · Union Berlin0–02
1899 Hoffenheim9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–14
- W19 Oct 25A · FC St. Pauli3–03
- W12 Apr 25H · FSV Mainz 052–04
- D8 Dec 24H · SC Freiburg1–11
- L19 Aug 23H · SC Freiburg1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig26 games · scored 48 · conceded 35
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
11
7
31-45
11
8
46-60
9
5
61-75
6
10
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim26 games · scored 54 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
8
5
16-30
15
5
31-45
13
5
46-60
5
8
61-75
9
6
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
8
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
