RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
4th · 32 pts · 16 played
DWLLW
1–5Full time
Bayern München
1st · 47 pts · 17 played
WDWWW
Our take
Bayern München were slight favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 68). Absences weigh more on Bayern München. RB Leipzig had 2.9 days of rest, Bayern München 2.9 and had to travel 361 km.
Away travel361 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
RB Leipzig20%
Draw22%
Bayern München58%
RB Leipzig20%
Draw24%
Bayern München56%
RB Leipzig19%
Draw22%
Bayern München60%
RB Leipzig15%
Draw19%
Bayern München66%
RB Leipzig21%
Draw24%
Bayern München55%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 88
Team strength
RB LeipzigBayern München
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
93
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
76
AttackIn forecast
96
53
DefenceIn forecast
90
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigBayern München
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.88
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.76
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
2.54
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+1.34
88%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
16.00
ShotsContext
18.76
5.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.12
36%
On target shareContext
43%
10.75
Shots in the boxContext
13.12
66%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
21%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.19
Shots allowedContext
8.41
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.88
BlocksContext
3.23
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.58
71%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
474
PassesContext
707
402
Accurate passesContext
638
85%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.21
9.38
FoulsContext
9.06
10.81
Fouls sufferedContext
8.29
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
2.43
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+1.27
90%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
18.20
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.50
41%
On target shareContext
41%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
14.33
66%
Box shareContext
74%
15%
ConversionContext
20%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.90
Shots allowedContext
8.60
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
3.10
BlocksContext
2.86
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
72%
Save rateContext
70%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
499
PassesContext
730
427
Accurate passesContext
661
86%
Pass accuracyContext
91%
7.02
Team ratingContext
7.09
8.60
FoulsContext
7.80
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
7.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Bayern München
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel361 km912 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 2.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 361 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 912 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
21H. Ito
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
20T. Bischof
8L. Goretzka
45A. Pavlović
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
42Lennart Karl
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Bayern München-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-0-1
- Scored
- 2.63
- Conceded
- 0.75
Bayern München · Away
2.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-0
- Scored
- 3.38
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | W 6–2 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | W 4–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | W 5–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 6–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 8–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 32 of 45 · 2.13 per game | 41 of 45 · 2.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 RB Leipzig wins3 draws5 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.56 – 3.00
Over 2.589%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets0% · 11%
- 22 Aug 2025Bayern München6–0RB Leipzig
- 3 May 2025RB Leipzig3–3Bayern München
- 20 Dec 2024Bayern München5–1RB Leipzig
- 24 Feb 2024Bayern München2–1RB Leipzig
- 30 Sep 2023RB Leipzig2–2Bayern München
- 20 May 2023Bayern München1–3RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 0.76 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 4.65 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 76% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 53% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| RB Leipzig | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 3.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.80 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.87 | 5.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.40 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 11/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.41 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 3.29 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 8/16 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 19% 3/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| RB Leipzig | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.50 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.81
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+48%league 39%
Fouls23.4league 21.2
Penalties0.18league 0.32
Home wins34%league 46%
RB Leipzig9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D4 Oct 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- D14 Feb 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
- L15 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–27
- W6 Oct 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–02
- D11 May 24H · Werder Bremen1–11
Bayern München8 with this referee
Record7-0-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W25 Oct 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–03
- W23 Feb 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt4–01
- W24 Feb 24H · RB Leipzig2–13
- W20 Dec 23A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- W21 Oct 23A · FSV Mainz 053–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig16 games · scored 32 · conceded 19
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Bayern München17 games · scored 66 · conceded 13
6
3
0-15
11
2
16-30
12
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
10
1
61-75
21
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
8
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 37 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
15
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
