RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
3rd · 53 pts · 28 played
WWLWW
1–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13th · 30 pts · 28 played
WLWDD
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 and had to travel 413 km.
Away travel413 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
RB Leipzig66%
Draw19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach14%
RB Leipzig61%
Draw22%
Borussia Mönchengladbach16%
RB Leipzig67%
Draw19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach14%
RB Leipzig59%
Draw22%
Borussia Mönchengladbach19%
RB Leipzig64%
Draw21%
Borussia Mönchengladbach15%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 94
Team strength
RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
76
AttackIn forecast
34
53
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
89%
Scored inContext
64%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
14.93
ShotsContext
11.21
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
37%
On target shareContext
37%
10.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
71%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.46
Shots allowedContext
13.68
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.32
3.37
BlocksContext
3.18
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
68%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
493
PassesContext
426
417
Accurate passesContext
351
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.79
9.43
FoulsContext
10.39
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.21
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.60
ShotsContext
11.90
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
40%
On target shareContext
35%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
77%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
2.40
BlocksContext
3.10
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
65%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
511
PassesContext
421
431
Accurate passesContext
344
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.80
FoulsContext
9.50
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km620 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel413 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 413 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 620 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
24X. Schlager
13N. Seiwald
14C. Baumgartner
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
29J. Scally
6Y. Engelhardt
16P. Sander
27R. Reitz
17J. Castrop
15H. Tabaković
9F. Honorat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
2.07points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-3
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-7
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–5 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H |
| Points | 52 of 81 · 1.93 per game | 29 of 81 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 RB Leipzig wins2 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game1.22 – 0.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets56% · 44%
- 28 Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0RB Leipzig
- 29 Mar 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–0RB Leipzig
- 9 Nov 2024RB Leipzig0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 17 Feb 2024RB Leipzig2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 23 Sep 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1RB Leipzig
- 11 Mar 2023RB Leipzig3–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.96 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.96 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 57% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.52 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.08 | 8.45 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.82 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| RB Leipzig | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 6.30 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.50 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 20.5
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins33%league 44%
RB Leipzig10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L17 Jan 26H · Bayern München1–51
- D4 Oct 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- D14 Feb 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
- L15 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–27
- W6 Oct 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–02
Borussia Mönchengladbach8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L25 Oct 25H · Bayern München0–32
- D24 Aug 25H · Hamburger SV0–02
- L17 May 25H · VfL Wolfsburg0–10
- L7 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 051–30
- D28 Apr 24H · Union Berlin0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig28 games · scored 55 · conceded 36
7
0-15
8
5
16-30
12
7
31-45
12
8
46-60
9
5
61-75
7
11
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach28 games · scored 35 · conceded 48
4
8
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
9
61-75
9
10
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
