RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
RB Leipzig
9th · 6 pts · 4 played
WLWL
6–0Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
12th · 5 pts · 4 played
DLWD
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig were without C. Baumgartner and B. Gruda. Eintracht Frankfurt were without J. Maluze. RB Leipzig had 20.1 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 21.1 and had to travel 293 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel293 kmRest days20.1 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
RB Leipzig60%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt21%
RB Leipzig54%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt22%
RB Leipzig60%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt20%
RB Leipzig51%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt27%
RB Leipzig59%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt21%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
14°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 71%
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 134
Team strength
RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
76
AttackIn forecast
54
53
DefenceIn forecast
37
46
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigEintracht Frankfurt
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
2.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.05
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.75
ShotsContext
13.75
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
33%
On target shareContext
35%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
68%
Box shareContext
77%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.75
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.25
2.75
BlocksContext
5.25
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
76%
Save rateContext
72%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
553
PassesContext
421
484
Accurate passesContext
336
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.16
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.25
FoulsContext
10.25
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
13.30
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
37%
On target shareContext
38%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
68%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.80
Shots allowedContext
16.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
3.00
BlocksContext
4.67
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
57%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
524
PassesContext
435
459
Accurate passesContext
357
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.30
FoulsContext
10.20
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
WLLWL
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Eintracht Frankfurt
DLWD
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel293 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 5 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
21N. El Aynaoui
6E. Banzuzi
7A. Nusa
28C. Nkunku
30A. Maksimović
40Rômulo
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
3L. Brassier
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
26K. Kosugi
15N. Aséko Nkili
25R. Onyedika
7A. Knauff
42C. Uzun
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −16.3% · Defence line −11.6% of weighted minutes
- MID C. Baumgartner Starter 6.89 Att −7.2% Def −5.8%
- MID B. Gruda Starter 7.03 Att −5.2% Def −4.2%
- MID A. Ouédraogo Rotation 6.86 Att −1.3% Def −1.0%
- ATT Marc Guiu Rotation 6.18 Att −1.9%
- MID R. Reitz Rotation 8.00 Att −0.8% Def −0.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −4.8% · Defence line −10.3% of weighted minutes
- DEF J. Maluze Core 7.44 Def −8.8%
- MID F. Chaïbi Rotation 6.71 Att −4.0% Def −1.5%
- ATT Malik Pimpong Depth 6.50 Att −0.6%
- ATT J. Ngankam Depth 6.27 Att −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 RB Leipzig wins3 draws3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.50
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 18 Apr 2026Eintracht Frankfurt1–3RB Leipzig
- 6 Dec 2025RB Leipzig6–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 26 Apr 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–0RB Leipzig
- 15 Dec 2024RB Leipzig2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt2–2RB Leipzig
- 13 Jan 2024RB Leipzig0–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.75 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 100% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 90% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 100% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.75 | 9.25 | 10.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 10.80 | 10.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 134 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.40league 3.43
Red cards0.21league 0.10
Cards 5+51%league 19%
Fouls23.0league 22.3
Penalties0.28league 0.14
Home wins42%league 48%
RB Leipzig13 with this referee
Record6-3-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W6 Dec 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt6–01
- W25 Oct 25A · FC Augsburg6–01
- L17 May 25H · VfB Stuttgart2–31
- L1 Mar 25H · FSV Mainz 051–21
- L20 Dec 24A · Bayern München1–52
Eintracht Frankfurt8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L6 Dec 25A · RB Leipzig0–62
- L4 Oct 25H · Bayern München0–31
- L5 Apr 25A · Werder Bremen0–23
- D20 Jan 24A · SV Darmstadt 982–21
- L12 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig4 games · scored 9 · conceded 5
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt4 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 20
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
