RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RB Leipzig
9th · 6 pts · 4 played
WLWL
6–0Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
12th · 5 pts · 4 played
DLWD
RB Leipzig59.0%fair odds 1.69
Draw20.9%fair odds 4.79
Eintracht Frankfurt20.1%fair odds 4.97
Expected goals2.22 – 1.24total 3.46
Likeliest score2–19.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RB Leipzig ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RB Leipzig goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%10.41
- 1–19.1%10.97
- 2–07.7%12.93
- 3–17.1%14.09
- 1–06.5%15.35
- 2–26.0%16.77
- 3–05.7%17.49
- 1–25.4%18.60
- 3–24.4%22.69
- 4–13.9%25.41
Winning margin
19.6%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 5.11
17.8%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 5.62
21.7%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 4.61
20.9%
Draw
fair 4.79
11.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 8.37
5.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 17.94
2.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 38.56
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
RB Leipzig goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 59.0% | 58.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 20.1% | 20.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 65.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 63.8% | 62.8% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 2.22 | 2.16 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.24 | 1.22 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RB Leipzig win59.0%1.69
- Draw20.9%4.79
- Eintracht Frankfurt win20.1%4.97
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw79.9%1.25
- Double chance RB Leipzig or Eintracht Frankfurt79.1%1.26
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw41.0%2.44
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig74.6%1.34
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt25.4%3.94
Goals
- Over 0.596.4%1.04
- Over 1.586.4%1.16
- Over 2.567.2%1.49
- Over 3.545.5%2.20
- Over 4.526.7%3.75
- Under 1.513.6%7.37
- Under 2.532.8%3.04
- Under 3.554.5%1.83
Both teams to score
- Yes63.8%1.57
- No36.2%2.76
- Yes and over 2.554.7%1.83
- RB Leipzig win and yes33.7%2.96
- Draw and yes17.3%5.79
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes12.8%7.80
Team goals
- RB Leipzig over 0.589.1%1.12
- RB Leipzig over 1.565.0%1.54
- RB Leipzig over 2.538.2%2.62
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.571.1%1.41
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.535.2%2.84
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.513.0%7.71
- RB Leipzig clean sheet28.9%3.46
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet10.9%9.19
- RB Leipzig win to nil25.3%3.95
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil7.3%13.73
Handicap
- RB Leipzig −1.537.3%2.68
- RB Leipzig −2.519.6%5.11
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.562.7%1.60
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.580.4%1.24
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.58.2%12.24
- RB Leipzig +1.591.8%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.597
Over 2.5 called right76.2%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.7% | 66.7% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 43.5% | 42.1% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 56.0% | 37.5% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 73.8% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 86.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 42 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5971 | 0.6142 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 52.4% | 52.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 42 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 6 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.