RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were clear favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig had 5.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7.8 and had to travel 346 km.
Away travel346 kmRest days5.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
RB Leipzig62%
Draw21%
FC Augsburg17%
RB Leipzig58%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg18%
RB Leipzig62%
Draw21%
FC Augsburg17%
RB Leipzig55%
Draw23%
FC Augsburg22%
RB Leipzig60%
Draw22%
FC Augsburg18%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 57
Team strength
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
76
AttackIn forecast
72
53
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigFC Augsburg
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
92%
Scored inContext
71%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.46
ShotsContext
12.33
5.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.13
36%
On target shareContext
33%
11.13
Shots in the boxContext
7.39
72%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.27
11.42
Shots allowedContext
12.88
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.48
BlocksContext
4.48
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
66%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
500
PassesContext
401
426
Accurate passesContext
321
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.13
FoulsContext
11.33
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.40
ShotsContext
13.00
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
36%
On target shareContext
36%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
82%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.70
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
2.56
BlocksContext
4.56
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
60%
Save rateContext
62%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
543
PassesContext
418
468
Accurate passesContext
339
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.00
FoulsContext
10.40
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km588 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel346 km901 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 346 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 588 km | 901 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
10B. Gruda
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
34Arthur Chaves
31K. Schlotterbeck
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
17K. Jakić
4H. Massengo
19Robin Fellhauer
36M. Kömür
32F. Rieder
21Rodrigo Ribeiro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- FC Augsburg-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.42
FC Augsburg · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-7
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| FC St. Pauli | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 6–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 41 of 69 · 1.78 per game | 31 of 69 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 RB Leipzig wins4 draws0 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game2.89 – 0.89
Over 2.578%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets56% · 11%
- 25 Oct 2025FC Augsburg0–6RB Leipzig
- 14 Feb 2025FC Augsburg0–0RB Leipzig
- 28 Sep 2024RB Leipzig4–0FC Augsburg
- 10 Feb 2024FC Augsburg2–2RB Leipzig
- 16 Sep 2023RB Leipzig3–0FC Augsburg
- 15 Apr 2023RB Leipzig3–2FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.96 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 58% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.68 | 4.54 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.18 | 9.42 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 14/22 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.46 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 6/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 10.80 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.76
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+53%league 38%
Fouls23.9league 20.7
Penalties0.21league 0.36
Home wins46%league 47%
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Nov 25H · Werder Bremen2–01
- D23 Feb 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–23
- L30 Nov 24H · VfL Wolfsburg1–52
- D4 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln0–04
- W5 Nov 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
FC Augsburg11 with this referee
Record4-5-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D18 Jan 26H · SC Freiburg2–23
- W12 Apr 25A · VfL Bochum2–12
- W15 Mar 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–01
- D10 Nov 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim0–02
- L1 Sep 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–44
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig24 games · scored 46 · conceded 33
6
0-15
5
5
16-30
11
6
31-45
11
7
46-60
9
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
FC Augsburg24 games · scored 30 · conceded 41
3
4
0-15
3
9
16-30
5
9
31-45
8
7
46-60
2
7
61-75
9
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
1
61-75
1
7
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
