Real Betis
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Betis
16th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
4–0Full time
Panathinaikos
6th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Real Betis50.4%fair odds 1.98
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Panathinaikos23.1%fair odds 4.34
Expected goals1.57 – 0.99total 2.56
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Panathinaikos
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Betis ↓ · Panathinaikos → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Betis goals, columns Panathinaikos goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.91
- 1–011.5%8.67
- 2–09.6%10.44
- 2–19.4%10.59
- 0–08.4%11.95
- 0–17.0%14.31
- 1–25.9%16.91
- 3–05.0%19.90
- 3–15.0%20.19
- 2–24.7%21.49
Winning margin
11.0%
Real Betis by 3+
fair 9.06
15.6%
Real Betis by 2
fair 6.41
23.8%
Real Betis by 1
fair 4.21
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
14.6%
Panathinaikos by 1
fair 6.83
6.1%
Panathinaikos by 2
fair 16.34
2.3%
Panathinaikos by 3+
fair 43.52
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Real Betis goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
13%3
8%4+
Panathinaikos goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis win | 50.4% | 49.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Panathinaikos win | 23.1% | 23.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 45.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 48.8% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Real Betis | 1.57 | 1.52 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Panathinaikos | 0.99 | 0.96 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Betis win50.4%1.98
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Panathinaikos win23.1%4.34
- Double chance Real Betis or draw76.9%1.30
- Double chance Real Betis or Panathinaikos73.5%1.36
- Double chance Panathinaikos or draw49.6%2.02
- Draw no bet Real Betis68.6%1.46
- Draw no bet Panathinaikos31.4%3.19
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.1%1.37
- Over 2.547.1%2.12
- Over 3.525.5%3.92
- Over 4.511.7%8.55
- Under 1.526.9%3.72
- Under 2.552.9%1.89
- Under 3.574.5%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.537.7%2.65
- Real Betis win and yes21.4%4.66
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Panathinaikos win and yes10.7%9.34
Team goals
- Real Betis over 0.579.3%1.26
- Real Betis over 1.546.7%2.14
- Real Betis over 2.521.0%4.76
- Panathinaikos over 0.562.7%1.60
- Panathinaikos over 1.525.9%3.86
- Panathinaikos over 2.57.8%12.87
- Real Betis clean sheet37.3%2.68
- Panathinaikos clean sheet20.7%4.82
- Real Betis win to nil28.9%3.45
- Panathinaikos win to nil12.4%8.09
Handicap
- Real Betis −1.526.6%3.75
- Real Betis −2.511.0%9.06
- Panathinaikos +1.573.4%1.36
- Panathinaikos +2.589.0%1.12
- Panathinaikos −1.58.4%11.88
- Real Betis +1.591.6%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won58.3%
Avg chance given to result36.1%
1X2 Brier0.635
Over 2.5 called right41.7%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 83.3% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 43.4% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 54.6% | 33.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 4 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5126 | 0.4328 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 48.9% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 4 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.