Real Betis vs Panathinaikos – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis 16th · 0 pts · 1 played L

First leg0–1 4–0Full time

Panathinaikos 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Panathinaikos. Real Betis had 4.1 days of rest, Panathinaikos 7.1 and had to travel 2,603 km.

Away travel2,603 kmRest days4.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Real Betis50%

Draw27%

Panathinaikos23%

Expected goals 1.57 – 0.99

Real Betis54%

Draw25%

Panathinaikos21%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.02

Real Betis49%

Draw27%

Panathinaikos24%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.00

Real Betis43%

Draw28%

Panathinaikos29%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.10

Real Betis50%

Draw27%

Panathinaikos23%

Expected goals 1.52 – 0.96

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 103

Team strength

Real Betis

Panathinaikos

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

79 AttackIn forecast 48

59 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Panathinaikos

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Betis

Panathinaikos

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.45

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.60 ShotsContext 12.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

31% On target shareContext 43%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

59% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 16%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.10 BlocksContext 2.56

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

75% Save rateContext 77%

52% PossessionIn forecast 46%

458 PassesContext 407

391 Accurate passesContext 323

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.10 FoulsContext 14.00

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,964 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Panathinaikos

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,603 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Panathinaikos
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	7.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 12 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,603 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,964 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Pau López(G)

12R. Rodríguez 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 2Héctor Bellerín

10A. Ezzalzouli 14S. Amrabat 8Pablo Fornals 7Antony

19C. Hernández 24Aitor Ruibal

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI

5-4-1

40A. Lafont(G)

77G. Kyriakopoulos 26Javi Hernández 15S. Ingason 3G. Katris 2D. Calabria

20V. Taborda 11A. Bakasetas 8R. Luz Sanches 28F. Pellistri

7A. Tetteh

+13 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Panathinaikos Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis+1.7 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Panathinaikos-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home No home games yet this season.

Panathinaikos · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Real Betis wins0 draws1 Panathinaikos wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

12 Mar 2026Panathinaikos1–0Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Panathinaikos	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.56
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Real Betis	Panathinaikos	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	1.10
Match goals	2.40	2.20	2.56
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Panathinaikos	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	7.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	9.00
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	4.40
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Real Betis	Panathinaikos	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.88
Corners conceded	4.90	4.13
Match total	8.90	8.01	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.60
Opponent cards	2.90	2.10
Match total	5.20	4.70	4.40
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 4.50

Red cards0.19league 0.42

Cards 5+33%league 67%

Fouls22.1league 26.7

Penalties0.32league 0.08

Home wins53%league 42%

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

Panathinaikos

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.