Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 75). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Madrid had 7.2 days of rest, Villarreal 7 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days7.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Madrid59%
Draw23%
Villarreal17%
Real Madrid58%
Draw23%
Villarreal18%
Real Madrid58%
Draw24%
Villarreal18%
Real Madrid52%
Draw26%
Villarreal23%
Real Madrid59%
Draw23%
Villarreal18%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 30
Team strength
Real Madrid
Villarreal
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
89
AttackIn forecast
76
85
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridVillarreal
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.86
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
17.14
ShotsContext
16.00
6.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.57
36%
On target shareContext
35%
10.29
Shots in the boxContext
10.71
60%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.75
9.86
Shots allowedContext
9.14
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
5.00
BlocksContext
4.60
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
55%
Save rateContext
74%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
602
PassesContext
449
542
Accurate passesContext
389
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.15
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.71
FoulsContext
11.14
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.10
ShotsContext
15.00
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
41%
On target shareContext
34%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
62%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.83
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.88
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
66%
Save rateContext
73%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
592
PassesContext
436
532
Accurate passesContext
375
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.15
Team ratingContext
6.97
9.00
FoulsContext
10.60
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel311 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 1,167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
3Éder Militão
8F. Valverde
19Dani Ceballos
14A. Tchouaméni
7Vinícius
15A. Güler
30Franco Mastantuono
10K. Mbappé
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
25Arnau Tenas(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
4Rafa Marín
15S. Mouriño
18P. Gueye
16T. Partey
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
20Alberto Moleiro
21T. Oluwaseyi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Villarreal-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Villarreal · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Real Madrid wins4 draws2 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 15 Mar 2025Villarreal1–2Real Madrid
- 5 Oct 2024Real Madrid2–0Villarreal
- 19 May 2024Villarreal4–4Real Madrid
- 17 Dec 2023Real Madrid4–1Villarreal
- 8 Apr 2023Real Madrid2–3Villarreal
- 7 Jan 2023Villarreal2–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.57 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.57 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.17 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.84 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 3.86 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 8.22 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.03
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+60%league 45%
Fouls26.2league 24.5
Penalties0.43league 0.30
Home wins50%league 49%
Real Madrid2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Nov 23A · Cadiz3–03
- W7 Oct 23H · Osasuna4–02
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D20 Apr 25H · Real Sociedad2–22
- D14 Apr 24A · Athletic Club1–13
- L5 Nov 23H · Athletic Club2–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid7 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Villarreal7 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
7
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
6
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
