Red Bull Salzburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Red Bull Salzburg
34th · 0 pts · 3 played
LLL
2–0Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
12th · 6 pts · 3 played
LWW
Our take
Red Bull Salzburg were slight favourites.
Red Bull Salzburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 29). Absences weigh more on GO Ahead Eagles. Red Bull Salzburg had 14 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 5 and had to travel 695 km.
Away travel695 kmRest days14 · 5Matches / 14d0 · 2
Red Bull Salzburg56%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
Red Bull Salzburg55%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Red Bull Salzburg55%
Draw24%
GO Ahead Eagles21%
Red Bull Salzburg48%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles26%
Red Bull Salzburg55%
Draw25%
GO Ahead Eagles20%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiorgi Kruashvili
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
Red Bull SalzburgGO Ahead Eagles
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
36
AttackIn forecast
29
29
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Red Bull SalzburgGO Ahead Eagles
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
2.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.67
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
28%
On target shareContext
48%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
52%
Box shareContext
70%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
19.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
3.00
BlocksContext
5.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
6.33
63%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
417
PassesContext
395
345
Accurate passesContext
333
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.10
13.00
FoulsContext
12.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
2.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
46%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
61%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.29
15.30
Shots allowedContext
16.20
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.30
BlocksContext
6.57
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
71%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
413
PassesContext
435
338
Accurate passesContext
363
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.40
FoulsContext
9.50
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel695 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Red Bull Salzburg |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct | 5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 695 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 242 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed XI
52C. Zawieschitzky(G)
3A. Terzić
2J. Rasmussen
44J. Schuster
22S. Lainer
14M. Kjærgaard
5S. Diabaté
8S. Kitano
7Clement Bischoff
11Y. Vertessen
20E. Baidoo
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
6C. Twigt
17M. Suray
24K. Goudmijn
18R. Margaret
9M. Smit
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Red Bull Salzburg
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Red Bull Salzburg+0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Red Bull Salzburg · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Red Bull Salzburg | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.33 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.60 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 20% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Red Bull Salzburg | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.33 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 6.33 | 11.00 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 3.33 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.70 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giorgi Kruashvili 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.06
Red cards0.18league 0.15
Cards 5+35%league 39%
Fouls23.9league 24.9
Penalties0.12league 0.39
Home wins53%league 48%
Red Bull SalzburgNo previous matches with this referee.
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Red Bull Salzburg3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles9 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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