Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rio Ave had 6.8 days of rest, Casa Pia 7 and had to travel.
Rest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rio Ave45%
Draw28%
Casa Pia28%
Rio Ave46%
Draw27%
Casa Pia28%
Rio Ave45%
Draw28%
Casa Pia28%
Rio Ave38%
Draw28%
Casa Pia34%
Rio Ave46%
Draw27%
Casa Pia28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Rio Ave
Casa Pia
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
18
AttackIn forecast
13
21
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveCasa Pia
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.81
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
69%
Scored inContext
56%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
8.81
ShotsContext
7.81
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
40%
On target shareContext
34%
6.08
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
64%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
16.69
Shots allowedContext
12.81
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
4.69
BlocksContext
3.50
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
69%
Save rateContext
58%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
369
PassesContext
328
306
Accurate passesContext
253
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.44
FoulsContext
14.94
14.69
Fouls sufferedContext
14.75
2.69
Yellow cardsContext
3.19
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.80
ShotsContext
7.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
41%
On target shareContext
36%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
66%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.25
17.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
5.40
BlocksContext
3.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
69%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
374
PassesContext
338
312
Accurate passesContext
264
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.64
13.50
FoulsContext
14.70
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km589 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 589 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.2 | 12.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
17M. Vrousai
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
43David Sousa
6José Fonte
18André Geraldes
5A. Conté
74Renato Nhaga
8Rafael Brito
20Y. Oukili
72Gaizka Larrazabal
29J. Livolant
90Cassiano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.71
Casa Pia · Away
1.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| AVS | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alverca | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Estoril | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | L 3–5 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Moreirense | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Arouca | D 3–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game | 14 of 48 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins3 draws2 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 29 Mar 2025Casa Pia2–1Rio Ave
- 2 Nov 2024Rio Ave2–2Casa Pia
- 11 Feb 2024Rio Ave1–0Casa Pia
- 2 Sep 2023Casa Pia1–1Rio Ave
- 16 Apr 2023Rio Ave1–1Casa Pia
- 30 Oct 2022Casa Pia1–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.81 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 44% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 44% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Rio Ave | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.13 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 8.80 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 12/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 9/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.81 | 2.81 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 6.06 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 12/16 | 94% 15/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 11/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Rio Ave | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 11.44 | 8.90 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.70 | 6.30 | 5.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 5.09
Red cards0.50league 0.29
Cards 5+25%league 61%
Fouls23.5league 27.2
Penalties0.25league 0.44
Home wins25%league 37%
Rio AveNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa Pia1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D4 May 25A · Arouca0–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave16 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
6
61-75
4
6
76-90
Casa Pia15 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
