Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 22). Rio Ave had 8 days of rest, GIL Vicente 6 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rio Ave35%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente37%
Rio Ave36%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente37%
Rio Ave35%
Draw28%
GIL Vicente37%
Rio Ave29%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente44%
Rio Ave36%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 19
Team strength
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
18
AttackIn forecast
32
21
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveGIL Vicente
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.48
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
61%
Scored inContext
77%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
9.81
ShotsContext
13.58
4.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
40%
On target shareContext
34%
6.21
Shots in the boxContext
7.84
61%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.47
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.87
Shots allowedContext
9.74
5.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.66
3.90
BlocksContext
2.42
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
67%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
381
PassesContext
366
314
Accurate passesContext
296
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.55
FoulsContext
13.23
14.29
Fouls sufferedContext
14.39
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.35
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.70
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
60%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.56
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.80
BlocksContext
2.60
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
71%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
402
PassesContext
380
326
Accurate passesContext
307
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
11.80
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km78 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel22 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 78 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
39Gustavo Mancha
23F. Petrasso
17M. Vrousai
8Ryan Guilherme
44T. Nikitscher
18D. Špikić
11Jalen Blesa
7Diogo Bezerra
9Tamble Monteiro
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
6Zé Carlos
32Martin Fernández
95Santi García
77Murilo
23Héctor Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
0.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.67
GIL Vicente · Away
1.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| AVS | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A |
| Estoril | W 2–1 AL 0–4 H | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Estrela | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Tondela | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Famalicao | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Moreirense | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Arouca | L 0–3 HD 3–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Nacional | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 90 · 1.10 per game | 48 of 90 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Rio Ave wins5 draws0 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.71 – 1.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets14% · 0%
- 20 Dec 2025GIL Vicente2–2Rio Ave
- 16 May 2025Rio Ave1–1GIL Vicente
- 6 Jan 2025GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
- 6 Apr 2024Rio Ave3–0GIL Vicente
- 12 Nov 2023GIL Vicente1–1Rio Ave
- 12 Mar 2023Rio Ave2–1GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.48 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.52 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 52% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 48% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 23% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Rio Ave | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 4.26 | |
| Match total | 10.43 | 9.82 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 21/30 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 18/30 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 15/30 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.58 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.93 | 5.06 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 20/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 55% 17/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Rio Ave | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.78 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.00 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.26league 4.85
Red cards0.11league 0.24
Cards 5+84%league 58%
Fouls25.9league 26.9
Penalties0.47league 0.44
Home wins53%league 41%
Rio Ave2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Mar 26H · Estrela2–14
- D31 Aug 25H · SC Braga2–23
GIL VicenteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave31 games · scored 33 · conceded 52
2
4
0-15
6
9
16-30
4
9
31-45
7
8
46-60
8
12
61-75
6
10
76-90
GIL Vicente31 games · scored 46 · conceded 32
8
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
14
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
