Rio Ave
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rio Ave35.2%fair odds 2.84
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.62
GIL Vicente37.1%fair odds 2.69
Expected goals1.28 – 1.33total 2.61
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
GIL Vicente
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rio Ave ↓ · GIL Vicente → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rio Ave goals, columns GIL Vicente goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.59
- 0–19.1%11.01
- 1–08.8%11.38
- 1–28.3%12.05
- 2–18.0%12.43
- 0–08.0%12.47
- 0–26.5%15.49
- 2–06.1%16.48
- 2–25.3%18.76
- 1–33.7%27.29
Winning margin
5.4%
Rio Ave by 3+
fair 18.42
10.3%
Rio Ave by 2
fair 9.67
19.5%
Rio Ave by 1
fair 5.14
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.62
20.1%
GIL Vicente by 1
fair 4.98
11.0%
GIL Vicente by 2
fair 9.09
6.0%
GIL Vicente by 3+
fair 16.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Rio Ave goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
GIL Vicente goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave win | 35.2% | 35.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.9% | +0.8 pp |
| GIL Vicente win | 37.1% | 37.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 51.5% | -3.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 56.2% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Rio Ave | 1.28 | 1.35 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals GIL Vicente | 1.33 | 1.39 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rio Ave win35.2%2.84
- Draw27.7%3.62
- GIL Vicente win37.1%2.69
- Double chance Rio Ave or draw62.9%1.59
- Double chance Rio Ave or GIL Vicente72.3%1.38
- Double chance GIL Vicente or draw64.8%1.54
- Draw no bet Rio Ave48.7%2.05
- Draw no bet GIL Vicente51.3%1.95
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.1%1.35
- Over 2.548.4%2.07
- Over 3.526.6%3.76
- Over 4.512.4%8.06
- Under 1.525.9%3.86
- Under 2.551.6%1.94
- Under 3.573.4%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.16
- Yes and over 2.540.6%2.46
- Rio Ave win and yes16.7%6.00
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- GIL Vicente win and yes17.5%5.73
Team goals
- Rio Ave over 0.572.3%1.38
- Rio Ave over 1.536.8%2.72
- Rio Ave over 2.513.9%7.17
- GIL Vicente over 0.573.4%1.36
- GIL Vicente over 1.538.2%2.62
- GIL Vicente over 2.514.9%6.72
- Rio Ave clean sheet26.6%3.76
- GIL Vicente clean sheet27.7%3.61
- Rio Ave win to nil18.6%5.39
- GIL Vicente win to nil19.7%5.09
Handicap
- Rio Ave −1.515.8%6.34
- Rio Ave −2.55.4%18.42
- GIL Vicente +1.584.2%1.19
- GIL Vicente +2.594.6%1.06
- GIL Vicente −1.517.0%5.87
- Rio Ave +1.583.0%1.21
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored286
Favourite won57.7%
Avg chance given to result43.9%
1X2 Brier0.544
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right51.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 37.6% | 43.4% |
| 40–50% | 92 | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.6% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 65.0% | 79.5% |
| 70–80% | 33 | 75.2% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 233 of 286 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5325 | 0.5247 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.5% | 59.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 233 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 286 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.