Santa Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 13 Sat, Dec 6 · 15:30
Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores
Our take
Santa Clara were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Santa Clara had 6 days of rest, Casa Pia 7 and had to travel.
Rest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Santa Clara45%
Draw28%
Casa Pia27%
Santa Clara46%
Draw26%
Casa Pia28%
Santa Clara45%
Draw28%
Casa Pia27%
Santa Clara38%
Draw28%
Casa Pia34%
Santa Clara46%
Draw26%
Casa Pia28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDiogo Rosa
- Cards per match 7.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Santa Clara
Casa Pia
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
29
AttackIn forecast
13
53
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Santa ClaraCasa Pia
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
67%
Scored inContext
58%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.42
ShotsContext
8.50
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.64
59%
Box shareContext
54%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.17
Shots allowedContext
13.42
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
2.14
BlocksContext
3.58
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
74%
Save rateContext
56%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
374
PassesContext
335
304
Accurate passesContext
259
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.92
FoulsContext
14.25
15.42
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.92
Yellow cardsContext
3.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
59%
Box shareContext
54%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.33
BlocksContext
3.40
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
76%
Save rateContext
52%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
361
PassesContext
347
289
Accurate passesContext
271
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.30
FoulsContext
13.80
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Santa Clara
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,006 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Casa Pia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Santa Clara |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,006 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
21F. Ferrão Venâncio
13Luís Rocha
23Sidney Lima
64Paulo Victor
35Serginho
6Adriano
8Pedro Ferreira
42Lucas Soares
11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
29Wendel
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
33Ricardo Batista(G)
2D. Tchamba
6José Fonte
18André Geraldes
5A. Conté
14Miguel Sousa
74Renato Nhaga
42S. Pérez
72Gaizka Larrazabal
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Santa Clara · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Casa Pia · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| AVS | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | L 3–5 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Santa Clara wins1 draws1 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 1 Feb 2025Santa Clara2–1Casa Pia
- 24 Aug 2024Casa Pia0–2Santa Clara
- 29 Jan 2023Casa Pia2–1Santa Clara
- 7 Aug 2022Santa Clara0–0Casa Pia
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 42% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 42% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Santa Clara | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Santa Clara | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 8.91 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.17 | 3.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 2.92 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 6.09 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 9/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Santa Clara | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 8.80 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 6.00 | 5.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Diogo Rosa Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards7.00league 5.14
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+100%league 64%
Fouls22.0league 27.5
Penalties0.00league 0.49
Home wins100%league 35%
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
Casa PiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Santa Clara12 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Casa Pia11 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Casa Pia9 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
