FC Porto vs Nacional – 27 Dec 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 27 · 16:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 1st · 24 pts · 8 played WWWWW

VS— Compare

Nacional 16th · 4 pts · 8 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,195 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

FC Porto—%

Draw—%

Nacional—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Porto)

Forecast from 12 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Nacional 6 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

FC Porto

Nacional

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 17

74 AttackIn forecast 15

80 DefenceIn forecast 13

84 Form indexContext 5

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Nacional

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

2.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 63%

50% Clean sheetsContext 13%

16.25 ShotsContext 11.00

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57

40% On target shareContext 28%

11.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

71% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 10%

2.71 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.25 Shots allowedContext 14.63

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

2.75 BlocksContext 3.14

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

77% Save rateContext 58%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

426 PassesContext 406

363 Accurate passesContext 334

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.61

13.88 FoulsContext 11.13

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

90% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.60 ShotsContext 10.50

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

39% On target shareContext 28%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

72% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 11%

3.25 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.20

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

2.80 BlocksContext 3.22

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

74% Save rateContext 63%

52% PossessionIn forecast 49%

416 PassesContext 390

351 Accurate passesContext 317

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.61

13.60 FoulsContext 12.20

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WWWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km60 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

Nacional LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,195 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -5.4 vs expected

L11 OctA · Rio Ave2–31.0 xPts
L19 SepH · Famalicao0–41.1 xPts
L12 SepH · Alverca1–31.4 xPts
L5 SepA · Sporting CP0–20.3 xPts
L30 AugH · Estrela2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Nacional
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,195 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	60 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

Nacional Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rio Ave (A) 2–3, 11 Oct

1R. Bellucci(G)

21W. Kokolo 38Zé Vitor 33Francisco Gonçalves 88Deivison

31D. Dongmo 15C. Labidi

12M. Song 20M. Djaló 10Daniel Júnior

29N. Kader

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Nacional Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.50

Nacional · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	FC Porto	Nacional
Rio Ave	W 2–0 A	L 2–3 A
Alverca	W 2–0 H	L 1–3 H
Points	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 FC Porto wins0 draws1 Nacional wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.50 Over 2.525% Both scored0% Clean sheets75% · 25%

15 Feb 2026Nacional0–1FC Porto
13 Sep 2025FC Porto1–0Nacional
17 May 2025FC Porto3–0Nacional
12 Jan 2025Nacional2–0FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Nacional
Scored per game	2.50	1.13
Conceded per game	0.50	2.25
Match goals	3.00	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	63%
Over 3.5	25%	63%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

	FC Porto	Nacional
Scored per game	2.20	1.10
Conceded per game	0.90	2.00
Match goals	3.10	3.10
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	6.75	5.50
Corners conceded	3.63	4.33
Match total	10.38	9.83	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.38
Opponent cards	2.13	2.63
Match total	3.13	4.01	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8

	FC Porto	Nacional	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.13
Corners conceded	3.90	4.50
Match total	9.60	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	3.60	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.