Casa Pia vs Famalicao – 27 Dec 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 27 · 16:00 Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras

Casa Pia 17th · 4 pts · 8 played LDLWL

VS— Compare

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Rest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Casa Pia—%

Draw—%

Famalicao—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)

Forecast from 12 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Famalicao 63% Both teams scored Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Casa Pia

Famalicao

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

13 AttackIn forecast 24

25 DefenceIn forecast 36

19 Form indexContext 30

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Casa Pia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Casa Pia

Famalicao

0.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.76

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

25% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.63 ShotsContext 10.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

27% On target shareContext 33%

6.14 Shots in the boxContext 4.75

59% Box shareContext 47%

4% ConversionContext 13%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.40

15.25 Shots allowedContext 11.88

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.38

5.71 BlocksContext 2.75

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

67% Save rateContext 59%

44% PossessionIn forecast 55%

343 PassesContext 472

268 Accurate passesContext 405

78% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.44 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.13 FoulsContext 11.63

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.25

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

30% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.60 ShotsContext 10.50

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

32% On target shareContext 31%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

60% Box shareContext 48%

5% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.50 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

5.67 BlocksContext 2.67

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

70% Save rateContext 62%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

327 PassesContext 465

251 Accurate passesContext 399

77% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.56 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.60 FoulsContext 10.90

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Casa Pia LDLWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L10 OctH · Santa Clara0–11.1 xPts
W20 SepA · Estoril2–11.0 xPts
L12 SepH · FC Porto1–40.5 xPts
D6 SepA · Guimaraes0–00.7 xPts
L30 AugH · Moreirense0–11.5 xPts

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—30 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Casa Pia	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	30 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Casa Pia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Santa Clara (H) 0–1, 10 Oct

95Ivan Mandić(G)

75Pedro Rosas 43David Sousa 3Kaly 18André Geraldes

80L. Ofori 16Silvi

77B. Pauwels 70João Rêgo 11M. El Boukammiri

9Henrique Araújo

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Casa Pia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Casa Pia · Home 0.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 3.25

Famalicao · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Casa Pia	Famalicao
Santa Clara	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Estoril	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Maritimo	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Casa Pia wins2 draws4 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.25 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

23 Feb 2026Famalicao2–0Casa Pia
21 Sep 2025Casa Pia1–1Famalicao
16 May 2025Famalicao2–1Casa Pia
5 Jan 2025Casa Pia1–1Famalicao
17 May 2024Famalicao1–2Casa Pia
13 Jan 2024Casa Pia0–2Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Casa Pia	Famalicao
Scored per game	0.38	1.25
Conceded per game	2.13	1.38
Match goals	2.50	2.63
Over 1.5	50%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	38%
Both teams scored	25%	63%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	75%	25%
Games	8	8

	Casa Pia	Famalicao
Scored per game	0.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.10
Match goals	2.30	2.20
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	40%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	60%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.75
Corners conceded	6.25	3.88
Match total	10.25	9.63	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.38
Opponent cards	2.13	2.38
Match total	4.51	4.76	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8

	Casa Pia	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	6.20
Corners conceded	6.40	3.90
Match total	10.50	10.10	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.10
Opponent cards	2.10	2.40
Match total	4.90	4.50	4.55
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.