Moreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Primeira Liga
Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 27 · 16:00
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Moreirense—%
Draw—%
Academico Viseu—%
Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)
Forecast from 12 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Moreirense and Academico Viseu. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Streak
Academico Viseu
4
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Alert
Moreirense
1.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Moreirense
−0.85
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.53xG against1.38
-
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Team strength
MoreirenseAcademico Viseu
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
25
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
17
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
31
23
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAcademico Viseu
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MoreirenseAcademico Viseu
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
0.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
63%
Scored inContext
75%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
7.88
ShotsContext
10.00
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
35%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
55%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.13
Shots allowedContext
17.25
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.88
BlocksContext
4.13
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
58%
Save rateContext
76%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
324
PassesContext
391
244
Accurate passesContext
320
75%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.48
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.63
FoulsContext
14.25
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
0.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
75%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.50
ShotsContext
10.00
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
35%
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
54%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.20
Shots allowedContext
17.25
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.00
BlocksContext
4.13
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
56%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
364
PassesContext
391
286
Accurate passesContext
320
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.70
FoulsContext
14.25
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.13
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.88
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Moreirense
LLWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,460 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Academico Viseu
LWWWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel88 km216 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Moreirense |
Academico Viseu |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,460 km | 216 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Moreirense
Last XI · not confirmed
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
65Guilherme Liberato
23N. John
19Tiago Andrade
7Manuel Mendonça
10Kiko Bondoso
79L. Vonić
Academico Viseu
Last XI · not confirmed
98Ewerton(G)
3Miguel Brau
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
8C. Kahraman
47L. Gohi
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Moreirense
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Academico Viseu
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Moreirense · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Academico Viseu · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Moreirense | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Maritimo | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Moreirense | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.88 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Moreirense | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Moreirense | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 7.38 | 8.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Moreirense | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 8.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.63 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Moreirense8 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
