Santa Clara vs Guimaraes – 8 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 25 Sun, Mar 8 · 20:30 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores

Santa Clara 16th · 19 pts · 24 played LLLDD

2–0Full time

Guimaraes 9th · 32 pts · 24 played WLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Santa Clara had 7.2 days of rest, Guimaraes 8 and had to travel 1,542 km.

Away travel1,542 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Santa Clara36%

Draw28%

Guimaraes36%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.31

Santa Clara32%

Draw27%

Guimaraes41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Santa Clara36%

Draw28%

Guimaraes36%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.31

Santa Clara29%

Draw27%

Guimaraes43%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.47

Santa Clara37%

Draw27%

Guimaraes37%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.38

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Cards per match 6.6
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 13

Team strength

Santa Clara

Guimaraes

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

29 AttackIn forecast 28

53 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Santa Clara

Guimaraes

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.46

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

58% Scored inContext 67%

21% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.75 ShotsContext 13.04

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.79

27% On target shareContext 29%

6.58 Shots in the boxContext 7.29

54% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.28 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.17 Shots allowedContext 11.29

3.61 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.47 BlocksContext 3.16

2.65 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

68% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 50%

370 PassesContext 372

300 Accurate passesContext 305

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.58 FoulsContext 14.38

14.08 Fouls sufferedContext 14.83

2.92 Yellow cardsContext 2.42

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

50% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 14.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

22% On target shareContext 30%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

45% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.70 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.88 BlocksContext 3.00

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

57% Save rateContext 60%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

375 PassesContext 382

304 Accurate passesContext 312

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.71

15.80 FoulsContext 15.60

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Santa Clara

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,091 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,542 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Santa Clara	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,542 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,091 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

5Guilherme Romão 94Henrique Silva 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira 65José Tavares

49Welinton 26Fernando 10Gabriel Silva

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 26R. Abascal 28Thiago Balieiro 66T. Strata

23Diogo Sousa 16Beni

48N. Saviolo 20Samu 18Telmo Arcanjo

90A. Ndoye

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Santa Clara · Home 0.92points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-7
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.17

Guimaraes · Away 0.91points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-7
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.73

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Santa Clara	Guimaraes
Tondela	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Alverca	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Benfica	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 H
Estrela	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Estoril	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–2 A
Nacional	D 3–3 A	W 2–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Arouca	D 0–0 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 A	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Rio Ave	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 1–4 H
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
AVS	W 2–0 H	W 4–0 H
Points	19 of 69 · 0.83 per game	29 of 69 · 1.26 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Santa Clara wins0 draws4 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

4 Oct 2025Guimaraes2–1Santa Clara
5 Apr 2025Guimaraes2–0Santa Clara
10 Nov 2024Santa Clara1–0Guimaraes
5 Mar 2023Santa Clara1–3Guimaraes
9 Sep 2022Guimaraes1–0Santa Clara

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Santa Clara	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.17
Conceded per game	1.29	1.46
Match goals	2.13	2.63	2.63
Over 1.5	54%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	46%	49%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	46%	46%	54%
Clean sheets	21%	29%
Failed to score	42%	33%
Games	24	24

	Santa Clara	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.80
Match goals	2.50	3.10	2.63
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Santa Clara	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.35	4.50
Corners conceded	4.70	3.32
Match total	9.05	7.82	9.20
Over 8.5	60% 12/20	45% 10/22
Over 9.5	45% 9/20	32% 7/22
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	18% 4/22
Cards
Cards	3.08	2.54
Opponent cards	3.00	2.96
Match total	6.08	5.50	5.18
Over 3.5	88% 21/24	75% 18/24
Over 4.5	67% 16/24	71% 17/24

	Santa Clara	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	4.38
Corners conceded	4.20	2.88
Match total	8.80	7.26	9.20
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.60
Opponent cards	2.70	2.70
Match total	5.50	5.30	5.18
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.31league 4.84

Red cards0.31league 0.27

Cards 5+92%league 59%

Fouls29.2league 26.9

Penalties0.31league 0.45

Home wins54%league 41%

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L17 Aug 25H · Moreirense0–14

Guimaraes1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L11 May 25H · Farense1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.