SC Braga vs Benfica – 28 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 28 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 5th · 25 pts · 15 played WWWWL

2–2Full time

Benfica 3rd · 35 pts · 15 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were slight favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 63). SC Braga had 8.9 days of rest, Benfica 5.9 and had to travel 320 km.

Away travel320 kmRest days8.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

SC Braga32%

Draw27%

Benfica41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

SC Braga32%

Draw27%

Benfica41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

SC Braga32%

Draw27%

Benfica41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

SC Braga26%

Draw26%

Benfica48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.60

SC Braga32%

Draw27%

Benfica41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 6.6
Penalties per match 0.64
Matches 11

Team strength

SC Braga

Benfica

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

42 AttackIn forecast 81

59 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Benfica

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.07

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.53

1.78 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

80% Scored inContext 93%

33% Clean sheetsContext 53%

13.13 ShotsContext 14.87

5.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.73

39% On target shareContext 39%

8.86 Shots in the boxContext 9.47

65% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 14%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.09

7.73 Shots allowedContext 8.33

2.87 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.21

2.33 BlocksContext 2.20

2.31 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.79

75% Save rateContext 87%

66% PossessionIn forecast 59%

615 PassesContext 494

540 Accurate passesContext 425

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.04

10.60 FoulsContext 12.20

12.73 Fouls sufferedContext 14.53

1.87 Yellow cardsContext 2.27

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.10 ShotsContext 16.20

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

38% On target shareContext 38%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

71% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 14%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.57

7.70 Shots allowedContext 6.90

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.56

2.57 BlocksContext 2.00

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

77% Save rateContext 87%

64% PossessionIn forecast 53%

606 PassesContext 470

533 Accurate passesContext 403

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.30 FoulsContext 10.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km654 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel320 km608 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Dec	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	320 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	654 km	608 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 6Vitor Carvalho 2Víctor Gómez

5Leonardo Lelo 8João Moutinho 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 20M. Dorgeles

21Ricardo Horta 10R. Zalazar

18Pau Víctor

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 17A. Dedić

5E. Barrenechea 20Richard Ríos

10H. Sudakov 18L. Barreiro 8F. Aursnes

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 0.71

Benfica · Away 2.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-0
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 0.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Benfica
Santa Clara	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Famalicao	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Arouca	W 4–0 A	W 5–0 H
Moreirense	W 2–1 H	W 4–0 A
FC Porto	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Casa Pia	W 4–0 H	D 2–2 H
Sporting CP	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Nacional	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
Guimaraes	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Rio Ave	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 H
AVS	D 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
Alverca	W 3–0 A	W 2–1 A
Tondela	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 H
Points	25 of 42 · 1.79 per game	32 of 42 · 2.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 SC Braga wins1 draws3 Benfica wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.17 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 33%

17 May 2025SC Braga1–1Benfica
4 Jan 2025Benfica1–2SC Braga
27 Apr 2024Benfica3–1SC Braga
17 Dec 2023SC Braga0–1Benfica
6 May 2023Benfica1–0SC Braga
30 Dec 2022SC Braga3–0Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	2.07
Conceded per game	0.87	0.53
Match goals	2.60	2.60	2.68
Over 1.5	73%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	27%	20%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	53%
Failed to score	20%	7%
Games	15	15

	SC Braga	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.10
Conceded per game	1.00	0.60
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.68
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	5.62	5.71
Corners conceded	2.92	2.79
Match total	8.54	8.50	9.17
Over 8.5	38% 5/13	50% 7/14
Over 9.5	31% 4/13	29% 4/14
Over 10.5	31% 4/13	21% 3/14
Cards
Cards	1.87	2.40
Opponent cards	2.87	2.80
Match total	4.74	5.20	5.50
Over 3.5	87% 13/15	73% 11/15
Over 4.5	53% 8/15	60% 9/15

	SC Braga	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	5.44
Corners conceded	3.67	3.44
Match total	8.78	8.88	9.17
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.00
Opponent cards	2.90	2.50
Match total	5.00	4.50	5.50
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.55league 5.17

Red cards1.09league 0.29

Cards 5+73%league 63%

Fouls27.4league 27.4

Penalties0.64league 0.44

Home wins27%league 36%

SC Braga1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D25 Apr 25A · Famalicao1–15

Benfica2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W26 Sep 25H · GIL Vicente2–13
W3 May 25A · Estoril2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.