SC Braga vs Estoril – 3 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 32 Sun, May 3 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga

SC Braga 4th · 56 pts · 31 played WWDWL

1–1Full time

Estoril 10th · 37 pts · 31 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were clear favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 28). SC Braga come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. SC Braga had 2.9 days of rest, Estoril 7.1 and had to travel 327 km.

Away travel327 kmRest days2.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d4 · 2

SC Braga63%

Draw22%

Estoril14%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.81

SC Braga67%

Draw20%

Estoril13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

SC Braga63%

Draw22%

Estoril14%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.81

SC Braga56%

Draw25%

Estoril19%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.91

SC Braga66%

Draw21%

Estoril13%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.78

Over 2.5 52% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Braga)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 18

Team strength

SC Braga

Estoril

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

42 AttackIn forecast 21

59 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Braga

Estoril

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.65

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.68

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.45

90% Scored inContext 68%

39% Clean sheetsContext 16%

11.39 ShotsContext 11.10

4.68 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.87

41% On target shareContext 35%

7.76 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

65% Box shareContext 63%

17% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.59

8.71 Shots allowedContext 11.74

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.47

2.52 BlocksContext 2.74

2.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

69% Save rateContext 62%

63% PossessionIn forecast 53%

599 PassesContext 431

526 Accurate passesContext 353

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.26 FoulsContext 12.74

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.03 Yellow cardsContext 2.42

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.70 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

100% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.50 ShotsContext 9.20

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

48% On target shareContext 30%

5.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

68% Box shareContext 60%

24% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.88

9.20 Shots allowedContext 12.20

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.50 BlocksContext 2.67

1.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

66% Save rateContext 67%

61% PossessionIn forecast 55%

577 PassesContext 452

504 Accurate passesContext 372

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.10 FoulsContext 13.90

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Braga

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km3,567 km in 14d

Schedule load53%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Estoril

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel327 km623 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Braga	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	High · 53	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 30 Apr	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	327 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,567 km	623 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 4 / 7	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1L. Horníček(G)

17Gabriel Moscardo 6Vitor Carvalho 14G. Lagerbielke

5Leonardo Lelo 34D. Tıknaz 8João Moutinho 20M. Dorgeles

18Pau Víctor 10R. Zalazar

9A. El Ouazzani

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-3

16M. Turk(G)

5A. Tsoungui 4Ferro 25F. Bacher

24Pedro Amaral 10J. Holsgrove 8Xeka 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 14Y. Begraoui 99R. Guitane

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Braga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Braga · Home 1.87points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-3
Scored: 2.07
Conceded: 1.00

Estoril · Away 0.93points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-9
Scored: 1.53
Conceded: 1.93

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	SC Braga	Estoril
Santa Clara	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H
Casa Pia	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Arouca	W 1–0 HW 4–0 A	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
Moreirense	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H
FC Porto	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Sporting CP	D 2–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Nacional	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 3–2 HD 1–1 A	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A
Rio Ave	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 HW 4–0 A
AVS	W 4–0 AD 2–2 H	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H
Alverca	W 5–0 HW 3–0 A	W 4–1 H
Tondela	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Estrela	D 3–3 A	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H
Benfica	D 2–2 H	L 1–3 A
Points	56 of 90 · 1.87 per game	34 of 90 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 SC Braga wins1 draws1 Estoril wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.71 Over 2.543% Both scored43% Clean sheets43% · 14%

19 Dec 2025Estoril1–0SC Braga
19 Apr 2025Estoril0–2SC Braga
6 Dec 2024SC Braga2–2Estoril
13 Apr 2024Estoril0–1SC Braga
3 Dec 2023SC Braga3–1Estoril
8 Apr 2023SC Braga4–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Braga	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.65
Conceded per game	1.00	1.68
Match goals	2.90	3.32	2.75
Over 1.5	74%	74%
Over 2.5	68%	65%	52%
Over 3.5	35%	55%
Both teams scored	52%	55%	48%
Clean sheets	39%	16%
Failed to score	10%	32%
Games	31	31

	SC Braga	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.80
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	2.80	2.50	2.75
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Braga	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	5.37	4.46
Corners conceded	3.19	4.82
Match total	8.56	9.28	9.34
Over 8.5	44% 12/27	54% 15/28
Over 9.5	33% 9/27	43% 12/28
Over 10.5	33% 9/27	36% 10/28
Cards
Cards	2.13	2.42
Opponent cards	2.58	2.13
Match total	4.71	4.55	5.12
Over 3.5	74% 23/31	81% 25/31
Over 4.5	55% 17/31	52% 16/31

	SC Braga	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.22
Corners conceded	3.10	5.11
Match total	7.20	9.33	9.34
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.90
Opponent cards	2.90	1.90
Match total	6.00	3.80	5.12
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 18 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.85

Red cards0.11league 0.24

Cards 5+39%league 58%

Fouls26.8league 26.9

Penalties0.39league 0.44

Home wins44%league 41%

SC Braga1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W25 Jan 26H · Alverca5–01

Estoril5 with this referee

Record1-3-1 Cards · opp.2.4 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 1

L3 Jan 26A · Benfica1–32
D11 Aug 25H · Estrela1–14
D16 Mar 25A · Arouca1–11
W5 Jan 25A · Estrela4–21
D25 Aug 24H · GIL Vicente0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.