SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim – 28 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 28 · 14:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC Freiburg 8th · 6 pts · 4 played LLWW

1–1Full time

1899 Hoffenheim 10th · 6 pts · 4 played WLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Freiburg were slight favourites.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 43). SC Freiburg had 3.8 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 8 and had to travel 159 km.

Away travel159 kmRest days3.8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

SC Freiburg53%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim23%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.15

SC Freiburg51%

Draw25%

1899 Hoffenheim23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06

SC Freiburg52%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim23%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.13

SC Freiburg45%

Draw25%

1899 Hoffenheim29%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.29

SC Freiburg52%

Draw25%

1899 Hoffenheim23%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.08

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 65

Team strength

SC Freiburg

1899 Hoffenheim

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

63 AttackIn forecast 46

73 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Freiburg

1899 Hoffenheim

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.71

100% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.00 ShotsContext 11.75

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

35% On target shareContext 45%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.33

68% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 17%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.25

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.25

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

56% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 49%

422 PassesContext 411

342 Accurate passesContext 327

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.25 FoulsContext 14.75

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.25

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.65

100% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.70 ShotsContext 13.20

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

33% On target shareContext 39%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

68% Box shareContext 68%

16% ConversionContext 15%

2.86 OffsidesContext 3.13

11.70 Shots allowedContext 12.70

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.56 BlocksContext 3.10

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

61% Save rateContext 61%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

384 PassesContext 399

307 Accurate passesContext 318

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.40 FoulsContext 13.30

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,138 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

1899 Hoffenheim

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel159 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Freiburg	1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	159 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,138 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

33J. Makengo 5A. Jung 28M. Ginter 17L. Kübler

6P. Osterhage 8M. Eggestein

32V. Grifo 18E. Dinkçi 19J. Beste

20C. Adamu

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Baumann(G)

13Bernardo 35Arthur Chaves 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

18W. Burger 7L. Avdullahu

29B. Toure 27A. Kramarić 22A. Prass

11F. Asllani

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Freiburg Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Freiburg+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
1899 Hoffenheim-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

1899 Hoffenheim · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 SC Freiburg wins2 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored88% Clean sheets13% · 13%

19 Apr 2025SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
8 Dec 20241899 Hoffenheim1–1SC Freiburg
20 Jan 2024SC Freiburg3–21899 Hoffenheim
19 Aug 20231899 Hoffenheim1–2SC Freiburg
12 Mar 2023SC Freiburg2–11899 Hoffenheim
18 Sep 20221899 Hoffenheim0–0SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Freiburg	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.50
Match goals	4.00	4.50	2.99
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	75%	75%
Both teams scored	75%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	25%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	4	4

	SC Freiburg	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.80	2.50
Match goals	3.80	4.50	2.99
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	75%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Freiburg	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	3.75
Corners conceded	3.00	6.25
Match total	8.67	10.00	10.13
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.75
Opponent cards	3.25	1.50
Match total	5.25	3.25	4.58
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4

	SC Freiburg	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	4.00
Corners conceded	3.44	5.20
Match total	7.55	9.20	10.13
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.80	1.20
Match total	4.50	3.20	4.58
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.52league 4.31

Red cards0.17league 0.31

Cards 5+32%league 48%

Fouls24.3league 22.6

Penalties0.22league 0.50

Home wins48%league 40%

SC Freiburg6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

W19 Oct 24H · FC Augsburg3–11
L25 Feb 24A · FC Augsburg1–21
W19 May 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–02
D19 Mar 23A · FSV Mainz 051–13
W22 Oct 22H · Werder Bremen2–02

1899 Hoffenheim6 with this referee

Record1-1-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L21 Dec 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–20
L10 Mar 24A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–34
D15 Apr 23A · Bayern München1–11
L4 Feb 23A · VfL Bochum2–53
L10 Apr 22A · RB Leipzig0–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.