SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg53.0%fair odds 1.89
Draw23.9%fair odds 4.18
1899 Hoffenheim23.1%fair odds 4.34
Expected goals1.84 – 1.15total 2.99
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1899 Hoffenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · 1899 Hoffenheim → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns 1899 Hoffenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.93
- 2–19.8%10.21
- 1–08.7%11.50
- 2–08.5%11.73
- 1–26.1%16.37
- 3–16.0%16.64
- 2–25.6%17.78
- 0–05.6%17.89
- 3–05.2%19.11
- 0–15.2%19.19
Winning margin
14.0%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 7.13
16.4%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 6.11
22.6%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.42
23.9%
Draw
fair 4.18
13.9%
1899 Hoffenheim by 1
fair 7.20
6.4%
1899 Hoffenheim by 2
fair 15.70
2.8%
1899 Hoffenheim by 3+
fair 35.77
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
SC Freiburg goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
1899 Hoffenheim goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 53.0% | 51.9% | +1.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.9% | 25.0% | -1.1 pp |
| 1899 Hoffenheim win | 23.1% | 23.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 53.0% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 54.7% | +3.3 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.84 | 1.72 | +0.12 |
| Expected goals 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.15 | 1.08 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win53.0%1.89
- Draw23.9%4.18
- 1899 Hoffenheim win23.1%4.34
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw76.9%1.30
- Double chance SC Freiburg or 1899 Hoffenheim76.1%1.31
- Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw47.0%2.13
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg69.7%1.44
- Draw no bet 1899 Hoffenheim30.3%3.30
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.5%1.24
- Over 2.557.5%1.74
- Over 3.535.1%2.85
- Over 4.518.3%5.46
- Under 1.519.5%5.13
- Under 2.542.5%2.35
- Under 3.564.9%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.72
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.14
- SC Freiburg win and yes26.9%3.72
- Draw and yes18.3%5.45
- 1899 Hoffenheim win and yes12.8%7.81
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.584.1%1.19
- SC Freiburg over 1.554.9%1.82
- SC Freiburg over 2.528.1%3.56
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 0.568.3%1.46
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.531.9%3.14
- 1899 Hoffenheim over 2.511.0%9.12
- SC Freiburg clean sheet31.7%3.15
- 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet15.9%6.31
- SC Freiburg win to nil26.1%3.83
- 1899 Hoffenheim win to nil10.3%9.74
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.530.4%3.29
- SC Freiburg −2.514.0%7.13
- 1899 Hoffenheim +1.569.6%1.44
- 1899 Hoffenheim +2.586.0%1.16
- 1899 Hoffenheim −1.59.2%10.91
- SC Freiburg +1.590.8%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored42
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result43.3%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right69.0%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.0% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 45.6% | 36.4% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.4% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 42 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5035 | 0.5068 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 42 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.