SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
8th · 33 pts · 24 played
LWLWL
3–3Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 43 pts · 24 played
DWLDW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. SC Freiburg had 5.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 2.8 and had to travel 343 km.
Away travel343 kmRest days5.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
SC Freiburg28%
Draw29%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
SC Freiburg30%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen43%
SC Freiburg27%
Draw29%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
SC Freiburg22%
Draw27%
Bayer Leverkusen51%
SC Freiburg28%
Draw30%
Bayer Leverkusen42%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 57
Team strength
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
77
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
79
63
AttackIn forecast
87
73
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgBayer Leverkusen
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
71%
Scored inContext
83%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.88
ShotsContext
13.00
4.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.92
66%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.29
4.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.61
4.57
BlocksContext
2.95
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.39
66%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
394
PassesContext
613
319
Accurate passesContext
544
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.33
FoulsContext
8.88
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.80
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
33%
On target shareContext
35%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
68%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
5.67
BlocksContext
3.10
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
76%
Save rateContext
86%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
325
PassesContext
635
254
Accurate passesContext
558
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.02
9.80
FoulsContext
7.90
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km487 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel343 km1,638 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 2.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 343 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 487 km | 1,638 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
43B. Ogbus
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
19E. Poku
30I. Maza
11M. Terrier
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
2.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-1
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.09
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 4–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 0–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 40 of 69 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 SC Freiburg wins2 draws5 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.44 – 2.22
Over 2.578%
Both scored89%
Clean sheets0% · 11%
- 26 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0SC Freiburg
- 4 May 2025SC Freiburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 21 Dec 2024Bayer Leverkusen5–1SC Freiburg
- 17 Mar 2024SC Freiburg2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 29 Oct 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg
- 26 Feb 2023SC Freiburg1–1Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 3.08 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 54% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| SC Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.95 | 5.04 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.33 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 11/20 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 6/20 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.76 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| SC Freiburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 8.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.76
Red cards0.18league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls23.0league 20.7
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins32%league 47%
SC Freiburg11 with this referee
Record4-5-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
- W9 Nov 25H · FC St. Pauli2–12
- L17 May 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–32
- D15 Mar 25A · FSV Mainz 052–22
- W15 Feb 25A · FC St. Pauli1–00
- D3 Nov 24H · FSV Mainz 050–01
Bayer Leverkusen6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W20 Dec 25A · RB Leipzig3–12
- W12 May 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
- W6 Apr 24A · Union Berlin1–02
- W30 Sep 23A · FSV Mainz 053–01
- D10 Sep 22A · Hertha BSC2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg24 games · scored 34 · conceded 39
7
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
14
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
8
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen24 games · scored 45 · conceded 29
8
4
0-15
8
5
16-30
11
9
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 4
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
