SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 56). Absences weigh more on Celta Vigo. SC Freiburg had 5.2 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4.2 and had to travel 1,446 km.
Away travel1,446 kmRest days5.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
SC Freiburg37%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo35%
SC Freiburg37%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo36%
SC Freiburg36%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo36%
SC Freiburg30%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo42%
SC Freiburg37%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo35%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
RefereeGlenn Nyberg
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 38
Team strength
SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
63
AttackIn forecast
36
73
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgCelta Vigo
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.51
+1.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
7.50
ShotsContext
9.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
47%
On target shareContext
58%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
74%
Box shareContext
62%
33%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
5.50
BlocksContext
—
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
86%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
390
PassesContext
422
317
Accurate passesContext
362
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.00
FoulsContext
15.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
4.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
40%
On target shareContext
50%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.40
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
5.30
BlocksContext
3.63
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
69%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
373
PassesContext
475
304
Accurate passesContext
414
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.82
7.90
FoulsContext
12.10
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,446 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 4.2La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,446 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,531 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
4J. Aidoo
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
22Hugo Sotelo
3Óscar Mingueza
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Celta Vigo · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| SC Freiburg | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | — | |
| Match total | 9.50 | — | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 7.50 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| SC Freiburg | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.29 | 9.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Glenn Nyberg 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.37league 4.76
Red cards0.11league 0.35
Cards 5+32%league 65%
Fouls22.5league 26.2
Penalties0.26league 0.24
Home wins42%league 47%
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
7
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
