SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg36.8%fair odds 2.72
Draw28.0%fair odds 3.57
Celta Vigo35.2%fair odds 2.84
Expected goals1.29 – 1.26total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.48
- 1–09.4%10.62
- 0–19.1%10.94
- 0–08.5%11.80
- 2–18.2%12.19
- 1–28.0%12.53
- 2–06.5%15.34
- 0–26.2%16.20
- 2–25.2%19.38
- 3–13.5%28.29
Winning margin
5.8%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 17.28
10.9%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 9.21
20.2%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.96
28.0%
Draw
fair 3.57
19.6%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 5.10
10.3%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 9.73
5.3%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 18.95
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
SC Freiburg goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Celta Vigo goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 36.8% | 36.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 35.2% | 34.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 46.1% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.6% | 51.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.29 | 1.28 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.26 | 1.24 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win36.8%2.72
- Draw28.0%3.57
- Celta Vigo win35.2%2.84
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw64.8%1.54
- Double chance SC Freiburg or Celta Vigo72.0%1.39
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw63.2%1.58
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo48.9%2.05
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.573.0%1.37
- Over 2.546.9%2.13
- Over 3.525.3%3.95
- Over 4.511.6%8.64
- Under 1.527.0%3.70
- Under 2.553.1%1.88
- Under 3.574.7%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes52.6%1.90
- No47.4%2.11
- Yes and over 2.539.2%2.55
- SC Freiburg win and yes16.9%5.93
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Celta Vigo win and yes16.2%6.18
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.572.6%1.38
- SC Freiburg over 1.537.1%2.70
- SC Freiburg over 2.514.1%7.08
- Celta Vigo over 0.571.6%1.40
- Celta Vigo over 1.535.8%2.79
- Celta Vigo over 2.513.3%7.50
- SC Freiburg clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Celta Vigo clean sheet27.4%3.64
- SC Freiburg win to nil20.0%5.01
- Celta Vigo win to nil19.0%5.27
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.516.6%6.01
- SC Freiburg −2.55.8%17.28
- Celta Vigo +1.583.4%1.20
- Celta Vigo +2.594.2%1.06
- Celta Vigo −1.515.6%6.43
- SC Freiburg +1.584.4%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored17
Favourite won58.8%
Avg chance given to result37.7%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right41.2%
BTTS called right47.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 37.9% | 83.3% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 42.8% | 25.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 53.1% | 57.1% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 17 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5331 | 0.5001 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 45.3% |
| Favourite won | 77.8% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 17 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.