SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim – 20 Sep 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 20 · 18:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

SC Paderborn 07 16th · 1 pts · 3 played DLL

3–1Full time

1899 Hoffenheim 13th · 3 pts · 3 played LLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

1899 Hoffenheim were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 37). SC Paderborn 07 had 8.2 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 3 and had to travel 274 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel274 kmRest days8.2 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 2

SC Paderborn 0735%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.56

SC Paderborn 0735%

Draw26%

1899 Hoffenheim39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

SC Paderborn 0736%

Draw24%

1899 Hoffenheim40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.55

SC Paderborn 0728%

Draw23%

1899 Hoffenheim48%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.75

SC Paderborn 0736%

Draw25%

1899 Hoffenheim40%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.51

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paderborn)

15°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 15 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee · GermanyDaniel Schlager

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 97

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07

1899 Hoffenheim

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

34 AttackIn forecast 46

33 DefenceIn forecast 43

32 Form indexContext 30

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—

Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07

1899 Hoffenheim

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

0.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.04

-0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

0% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.33 ShotsContext 17.67

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

9% On target shareContext 34%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.33

51% Box shareContext 58%

0% ConversionContext 11%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.50

17.00 Shots allowedContext 15.00

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

5.67 BlocksContext 4.67

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

77% Save rateContext 60%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

486 PassesContext 457

403 Accurate passesContext 367

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.00 FoulsContext 14.00

9.67 Fouls sufferedContext 8.67

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

60% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

13.70 ShotsContext 16.10

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

29% On target shareContext 32%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

65% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.57 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.40 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.44 BlocksContext 3.40

4.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

77% Save rateContext 57%

49% PossessionIn forecast 57%

440 PassesContext 473

357 Accurate passesContext 390

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.70 FoulsContext 15.10

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 8.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07 DLL

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km184 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 1 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
D29 AugA · FSV Mainz 050–00.9 xPts

1899 Hoffenheim LLWL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel274 km4,075 km in 14d

Schedule load18%Low

Form 30 · 3 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -3.0 vs expected

L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts
W12 SepH · VfB Stuttgart2–11.4 xPts
L5 SepH · Borussia Dortmund2–31.2 xPts
L29 AugA · 1.FC Köln2–31.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 18
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 12 Sep	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	274 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	184 km	4,075 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	19.8	19.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Confirmed XI

3-5-2

15N. Noll(G)

22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst

23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 5S. Castañeda 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda

30S. Marino 18M. Pieringer

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

1899 Hoffenheim Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1O. Baumann(G)

39M. Rots 28K. Machida 5O. Kabak 34V. Coufal

14A. Daghim 18W. Burger 7L. Avdullahu 20B. Conté

9M. Moerstedt 10A. Hložek

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Paderborn 07 Absences are shown before kick-off

1899 Hoffenheim Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Paderborn 07-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
1899 Hoffenheim+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

1899 Hoffenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–3 A	L 2–3 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.33	2.33
Match goals	1.33	4.33	3.00
Over 1.5	33%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	3	3

	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.60
Conceded per game	1.33	2.00
Match goals	1.33	3.60	3.00
Over 1.5	33%	90%
Over 2.5	33%	80%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	33%	10%
Failed to score	100%	20%
Games	3	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	7.33
Corners conceded	7.33	5.33
Match total	10.66	12.66	10.85
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	100% 3/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	100% 3/3
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.33
Opponent cards	1.67	0.67
Match total	3.67	3.00	3.71
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	SC Paderborn 07	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.60
Corners conceded	4.10	4.00
Match total	9.10	10.60	10.85
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	3.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	4.60	5.30	3.71
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniel Schlager Germany · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.26league 3.63

Red cards0.23league 0.09

Cards 5+49%league 23%

Fouls22.2league 22.5

Penalties0.28league 0.17

Home wins54%league 51%

SC Paderborn 071 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L22 Nov 25H · Hannover 960–20

1899 Hoffenheim9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 2

D10 Apr 26A · FC Augsburg2–23
W17 Jan 26H · Bayer Leverkusen1–02
L17 May 25H · Bayern München0–40
D9 Mar 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim1–12
L14 Sep 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.