Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP78.8%fair odds 1.27
Draw14.7%fair odds 6.82
Nacional6.5%fair odds 15.37
Expected goals2.55 – 0.62total 3.17
Likeliest score2–013.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Nacional → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Nacional goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.7%7.30
- 3–011.6%8.59
- 1–010.4%9.62
- 2–18.5%11.83
- 4–07.4%13.48
- 3–17.2%13.92
- 1–17.0%14.32
- 4–14.6%21.84
- 0–04.6%21.90
- 5–03.8%26.43
Winning margin
35.0%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 2.86
22.5%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.45
21.4%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.68
14.7%
Draw
fair 6.82
4.9%
Nacional by 1
fair 20.37
1.3%
Nacional by 2
fair 76.02
0.3%
Nacional by 3+
fair 356.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Sporting CP goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
Nacional goals
54%0
33%1
10%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 78.8% | 79.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 14.7% | 14.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Nacional win | 6.5% | 6.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 63.5% | -2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 42.8% | 44.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.55 | 2.62 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Nacional | 0.62 | 0.65 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win78.8%1.27
- Draw14.7%6.82
- Nacional win6.5%15.37
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw93.5%1.07
- Double chance Sporting CP or Nacional85.3%1.17
- Double chance Nacional or draw21.2%4.72
- Draw no bet Sporting CP92.4%1.08
- Draw no bet Nacional7.6%13.12
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.582.8%1.21
- Over 2.561.3%1.63
- Over 3.539.0%2.56
- Over 4.521.3%4.69
- Under 1.517.2%5.81
- Under 2.538.7%2.58
- Under 3.561.0%1.64
Both teams to score
- Yes42.8%2.34
- No57.2%1.75
- Yes and over 2.535.8%2.79
- Sporting CP win and yes29.5%3.40
- Draw and yes10.1%9.91
- Nacional win and yes3.3%30.69
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.592.2%1.08
- Sporting CP over 1.572.3%1.38
- Sporting CP over 2.546.9%2.13
- Nacional over 0.546.0%2.17
- Nacional over 1.512.8%7.84
- Nacional over 2.52.5%40.26
- Sporting CP clean sheet54.0%1.85
- Nacional clean sheet7.8%12.80
- Sporting CP win to nil49.4%2.02
- Nacional win to nil3.2%30.81
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.557.5%1.74
- Sporting CP −2.535.0%2.86
- Nacional +1.542.5%2.35
- Nacional +2.565.0%1.54
- Nacional −1.51.6%62.66
- Sporting CP +1.598.4%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored176
Favourite won61.4%
Avg chance given to result44.4%
1X2 Brier0.529
Over 2.5 called right58.0%
BTTS called right55.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 37.7% | 46.9% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 44.8% | 50.8% |
| 50–60% | 36 | 54.5% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 65.6% | 86.4% |
| 70–80% | 19 | 75.1% | 78.9% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 147 of 176 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5239 | 0.5115 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 46.4% |
| Favourite won | 62.6% | 61.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 147 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 176 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.