Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Sporting CP had 8 days of rest, Nacional 7.1 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP79%
Draw15%
Nacional7%
Sporting CP83%
Draw12%
Nacional5%
Sporting CP79%
Draw15%
Nacional7%
Sporting CP73%
Draw18%
Nacional9%
Sporting CP79%
Draw14%
Nacional7%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho
- Cards per match 7.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 34
Team strength
Sporting CP
Nacional
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
75
AttackIn forecast
15
81
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPNacional
2.74
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
0.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
2.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
79%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
18.47
ShotsContext
11.84
7.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
34%
12.32
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
66%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.20
8.42
Shots allowedContext
14.79
3.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
2.47
BlocksContext
4.42
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
66%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
528
PassesContext
304
464
Accurate passesContext
229
88%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.37
FoulsContext
14.58
13.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.42
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+1.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.40
ShotsContext
12.80
6.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
42%
On target shareContext
31%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
66%
Box shareContext
62%
20%
ConversionContext
13%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.40
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.90
BlocksContext
5.00
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
83%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
479
PassesContext
323
420
Accurate passesContext
249
88%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.50
FoulsContext
14.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km514 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel972 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 514 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
72Eduardo Quaresma
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
52João Simões
5H. Morita
31Luis Guilherme
8Pote
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
6Matheus Dias
34Léo Santos
16Alan Nuñez
11Paulinho Bóia
26Joel Silva
28Liziero
27Gabriel Veron
9J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Nacional · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 45 of 54 · 2.50 per game | 20 of 54 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
3 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game4.00 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Nacional1–4Sporting CP
- 25 Jan 2025Sporting CP2–0Nacional
- 17 Aug 2024Nacional1–6Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.74 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.53 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 2.84 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 63% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 21% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Sporting CP | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.41 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.18 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 9.59 | 10.11 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 2.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.05 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 5.52 | 5.42 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 11/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Sporting CP | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.80 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.40 | 5.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.79league 4.97
Red cards0.53league 0.29
Cards 5+82%league 59%
Fouls31.1league 27.2
Penalties0.38league 0.48
Home wins41%league 40%
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Sep 24H · AVS3–00
Nacional1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.6.0 · 7.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W15 Dec 25H · Tondela3–16
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP19 games · scored 52 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
14
31-45
8
2
46-60
8
2
61-75
13
2
76-90
Nacional19 games · scored 26 · conceded 28
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
9
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 27 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
10
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
