Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP84.7%fair odds 1.18
Draw10.7%fair odds 9.37
Nacional4.7%fair odds 21.38
Expected goals3.10 – 0.66total 3.76
Likeliest score3–011.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Nacional → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Nacional goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.5%8.67
- 2–011.2%8.96
- 4–08.9%11.17
- 3–17.6%13.09
- 2–17.4%13.53
- 1–06.9%14.40
- 4–15.9%16.88
- 5–05.6%18.01
- 1–15.0%19.93
- 5–13.7%27.20
Winning margin
46.3%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 2.16
21.1%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.75
17.3%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 5.77
10.7%
Draw
fair 9.37
3.5%
Nacional by 1
fair 28.55
1.0%
Nacional by 2
fair 104.25
0.2%
Nacional by 3+
fair 466.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
8%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
32%5+
Sporting CP goals
4%0
14%1
22%2
22%3
38%4+
Nacional goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 84.7% | 83.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Draw | 10.7% | 11.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Nacional win | 4.7% | 5.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 72.5% | 70.4% | +2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.5% | 45.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 3.10 | 2.99 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Nacional | 0.66 | 0.65 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win84.7%1.18
- Draw10.7%9.37
- Nacional win4.7%21.38
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw95.3%1.05
- Double chance Sporting CP or Nacional89.3%1.12
- Double chance Nacional or draw15.3%6.52
- Draw no bet Sporting CP94.8%1.06
- Draw no bet Nacional5.2%19.10
Goals
- Over 0.597.4%1.03
- Over 1.589.2%1.12
- Over 2.572.5%1.38
- Over 3.551.9%1.93
- Over 4.532.5%3.08
- Under 1.510.8%9.26
- Under 2.527.5%3.64
- Under 3.548.1%2.08
Both teams to score
- Yes46.5%2.15
- No53.5%1.87
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Sporting CP win and yes35.6%2.81
- Draw and yes8.1%12.35
- Nacional win and yes2.8%36.34
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.595.5%1.05
- Sporting CP over 1.581.6%1.23
- Sporting CP over 2.559.9%1.67
- Nacional over 0.548.4%2.07
- Nacional over 1.514.3%7.01
- Nacional over 2.53.0%33.68
- Sporting CP clean sheet51.6%1.94
- Nacional clean sheet4.5%22.24
- Sporting CP win to nil49.0%2.04
- Nacional win to nil1.9%51.94
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.567.3%1.49
- Sporting CP −2.546.3%2.16
- Nacional +1.532.7%3.06
- Nacional +2.553.7%1.86
- Nacional −1.51.2%85.19
- Sporting CP +1.598.8%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored37
Favourite won54.1%
Avg chance given to result45.6%
1X2 Brier0.533
Over 2.5 called right59.5%
BTTS called right43.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 38.8% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 52.9% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.8% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 74.9% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 84.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 4 of 37 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3307 | 0.3033 |
| Avg chance given to result | 58.4% | 60.6% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 75.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 4 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 37 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.