Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sporting CP. Sporting CP had 8 days of rest, Nacional 6.2 and had to travel 972 km.
Away travel972 kmRest days8 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sporting CP85%
Draw10%
Nacional5%
Sporting CP83%
Draw12%
Nacional6%
Sporting CP85%
Draw10%
Nacional5%
Sporting CP79%
Draw13%
Nacional7%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
Nacional5%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
RefereeJoao Pinheiro
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 10
Team strength
Sporting CP
Nacional
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
75
AttackIn forecast
15
81
DefenceIn forecast
13
71
Form indexContext
24
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPNacional
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+1.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.25
ShotsContext
11.75
6.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
51%
On target shareContext
26%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
65%
Box shareContext
53%
25%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
16.25
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
1.75
BlocksContext
3.75
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
56%
Save rateContext
62%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
546
PassesContext
414
483
Accurate passesContext
338
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.25
FoulsContext
11.75
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
11.40
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
43%
On target shareContext
33%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
69%
Box shareContext
53%
20%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.14
10.30
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.30
BlocksContext
4.80
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
69%
Save rateContext
76%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
548
PassesContext
374
487
Accurate passesContext
299
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.60
FoulsContext
13.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
DWWW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km589 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Nacional
DWLL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel972 km2,474 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 6.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 972 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 589 km | 2,474 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
58Flavio Goncalves
17R. Zalazar
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1R. Bellucci(G)
38Zé Vitor
33Francisco Gonçalves
34Léo Santos
21W. Kokolo
8Miguel Baeza
6Matheus Dias
52Wesley Gasolina
7M. Jensen
11S. Gavriel
99Pablo Ruan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Nacional · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
4 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2026Sporting CP2–1Nacional
- 23 Aug 2025Nacional1–4Sporting CP
- 25 Jan 2025Sporting CP2–0Nacional
- 17 Aug 2024Nacional1–6Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Sporting CP | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.40 | 3.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 30% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 8.25 | 8.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Sporting CP | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 10.60 | 8.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.40 | 4.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pinheiro 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.80league 3.95
Red cards0.10league 0.16
Cards 5+10%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 25.6
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins50%league 41%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP4 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Nacional4 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 28 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
31-45
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
