Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were slight favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 60). Sporting CP had 7.9 days of rest, SC Braga 3.1 and had to travel 320 km.
Away travel320 kmRest days7.9 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Sporting CP58%
Draw24%
SC Braga19%
Sporting CP58%
Draw24%
SC Braga19%
Sporting CP58%
Draw24%
SC Braga19%
Sporting CP50%
Draw26%
SC Braga24%
Sporting CP58%
Draw24%
SC Braga19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Sporting CP
SC Braga
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
75
AttackIn forecast
42
81
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPSC Braga
2.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
0.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
71%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
18.86
ShotsContext
13.43
7.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
38%
On target shareContext
40%
12.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
66%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
7.00
Shots allowedContext
8.43
2.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
2.14
BlocksContext
1.71
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
80%
Save rateContext
71%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
525
PassesContext
602
456
Accurate passesContext
521
87%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.14
FoulsContext
8.86
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
100%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.60
ShotsContext
13.80
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
40%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.83
64%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.50
7.20
Shots allowedContext
7.40
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
2.44
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
73%
Save rateContext
79%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
515
PassesContext
551
449
Accurate passesContext
470
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.50
FoulsContext
9.00
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel320 km3,240 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 3,240 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 17.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
7G. Quenda
97L. Suárez
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
4S. Niakaté
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
5Leonardo Lelo
27F. Grillitsch
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
21Ricardo Horta
10R. Zalazar
18Pau Víctor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
SC Braga · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 4–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Sporting CP wins3 draws0 SC Braga wins
Goals per game3.17 – 1.17
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 7 Apr 2025Sporting CP1–1SC Braga
- 10 Nov 2024SC Braga2–4Sporting CP
- 11 Feb 2024Sporting CP5–0SC Braga
- 3 Sep 2023SC Braga1–1Sporting CP
- 1 Feb 2023Sporting CP5–0SC Braga
- 7 Aug 2022SC Braga3–3Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.71 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.57 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Sporting CP | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.71 | 1.56 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.33 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 33% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 22% | |
| Games | 7 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.17 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.14 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.14 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Sporting CP | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.50 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.80 | 5.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.22league 5.16
Red cards0.33league 0.29
Cards 5+67%league 66%
Fouls27.9league 27.8
Penalties0.44league 0.43
Home wins33%league 37%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W10 Aug 25H · Tondela3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP7 games · scored 19 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
76-90
SC Braga7 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 26 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
8
2
61-75
8
2
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
8
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
