Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 43). Arsenal usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sunderland had 4.9 days of rest, Arsenal 7.1 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days4.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sunderland9%
Draw16%
Arsenal74%
Sunderland10%
Draw18%
Arsenal72%
Sunderland9%
Draw16%
Arsenal75%
Sunderland6%
Draw13%
Arsenal80%
Sunderland10%
Draw18%
Arsenal72%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 130
Team strength
Sunderland
Arsenal
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
62
AttackIn forecast
86
59
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandArsenal
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.57
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
10.50
ShotsContext
14.50
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
27%
On target shareContext
31%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
72%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
7.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
85%
Save rateContext
84%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
387
PassesContext
497
311
Accurate passesContext
426
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.20
FoulsContext
10.20
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
10.50
ShotsContext
15.00
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
27%
On target shareContext
38%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
72%
Box shareContext
84%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
7.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
3.80
BlocksContext
3.50
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
85%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
387
PassesContext
493
311
Accurate passesContext
420
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.20
FoulsContext
10.89
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arsenal
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel387 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Nov | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 583 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
6L. Geertruida
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
2W. Saliba
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
19L. Trossard
10E. Eze
7B. Saka
23Mikel Merino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Arsenal-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-0
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.60
Arsenal · Away
2.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 15 of 15 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.10 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.10 | 3.35 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.50 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.40 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.10 | 9.87 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.99league 3.59
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+39%league 39%
Fouls22.8league 21.8
Penalties0.22league 0.17
Home wins43%league 51%
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Dec 24H · Stoke City2–10
- L18 Oct 22A · Blackburn0–23
Arsenal14 with this referee
Record9-2-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- D14 Dec 24H · Everton0–00
- W3 Apr 24H · Luton2–01
- W11 Feb 24A · West Ham6–00
- W25 Feb 23A · Leicester1–01
- W15 Jan 23A · Tottenham2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 18 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
16-30
6
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 20 · conceded 2
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
6
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
