Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sunderland were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Sunderland had 9.3 days of rest, Burnley 9.2 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days9.3 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sunderland43%
Draw26%
Burnley31%
Sunderland42%
Draw27%
Burnley31%
Sunderland43%
Draw26%
Burnley31%
Sunderland36%
Draw26%
Burnley38%
Sunderland43%
Draw26%
Burnley31%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 115
Team strength
Sunderland
Burnley
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
62
AttackIn forecast
27
59
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBurnley
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandBurnley
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.91
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.05
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
65%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
9.65
ShotsContext
8.83
3.36
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
70%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.95
14.43
Shots allowedContext
17.09
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.09
4.26
BlocksContext
5.00
3.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.27
74%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
373
PassesContext
372
295
Accurate passesContext
288
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.04
FoulsContext
9.96
10.52
Fouls sufferedContext
8.83
2.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
67%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.50
Shots allowedContext
18.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.80
BlocksContext
5.38
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
63%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
405
PassesContext
403
324
Accurate passesContext
320
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.40
FoulsContext
10.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Burnley
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel135 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Burnley |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 9.2Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
7C. Talbi
28E. Le Fée
27N. Sadiki
19M. Diarra
9B. Brobbey
Burnley
Confirmed XI
1M. Dúbravka(G)
12B. Humphreys
5M. Estève
6A. Tuanzebe
23Lucas Pires
16Florentino
8L. Ugochukwu
2K. Walker
11J. Anthony
10M. Edwards
9L. Foster
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Burnley
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Burnley+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-0
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.82
Burnley · Away
0.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 2.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 1–5 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game | 12 of 66 · 0.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Sunderland wins2 draws2 Burnley wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 60%
- 23 Aug 2025Burnley2–0Sunderland
- 17 Jan 2025Burnley0–0Sunderland
- 24 Aug 2024Sunderland1–0Burnley
- 31 Mar 2023Burnley0–0Sunderland
- 22 Oct 2022Sunderland2–4Burnley
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 52% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 61% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 30% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Sunderland | Burnley | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.43 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 52% 12/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 9/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.13 | |
| Match total | 3.95 | 2.78 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 12/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 10/23 | 13% 3/23 | |
| Sunderland | Burnley | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.60 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.90 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.72
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 21.3
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins37%league 44%
SunderlandNo previous matches with this referee.
Burnley7 with this referee
Record1-2-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L26 Dec 23H · Liverpool0–22
- D19 May 22A · Aston Villa1–12
- D17 Apr 22A · West Ham1–12
- L12 Mar 22A · Brentford0–22
- L2 Jan 22A · Leeds1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland23 games · scored 24 · conceded 26
6
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
7
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
Burnley23 games · scored 25 · conceded 44
2
7
0-15
5
3
16-30
3
11
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
9
12
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
