Sunderland vs Chelsea – 24 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 38 Sun, May 24 · 16:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland

Sunderland 10th · 51 pts · 37 played LLDDW

2–1Full time

Chelsea 8th · 52 pts · 37 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Chelsea were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 56). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland had 7 days of rest, Chelsea 4.8 and had to travel 387 km.

Away travel387 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sunderland38%

Draw26%

Chelsea36%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.43

Sunderland32%

Draw27%

Chelsea40%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

Sunderland38%

Draw26%

Chelsea36%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.43

Sunderland31%

Draw26%

Chelsea43%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.60

Sunderland38%

Draw27%

Chelsea35%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.32

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sunderland)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 165

Team strength

Sunderland

Chelsea

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

62 AttackIn forecast 77

59 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sunderland

Chelsea

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.54

1.27 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.35

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

65% Scored inContext 81%

30% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.14 ShotsContext 13.54

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.53

33% On target shareContext 33%

7.39 Shots in the boxContext 9.03

69% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.93 OffsidesContext 2.15

14.38 Shots allowedContext 10.65

4.61 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.28

4.43 BlocksContext 2.80

3.34 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.97

71% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 58%

376 PassesContext 543

298 Accurate passesContext 474

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.96

10.59 FoulsContext 11.03

11.19 Fouls sufferedContext 12.16

2.08 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 37 and 37 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

70% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.10 ShotsContext 13.60

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

67% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 4%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.38

14.40 Shots allowedContext 9.40

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.30 BlocksContext 1.78

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

74% Save rateContext 53%

46% PossessionIn forecast 53%

372 PassesContext 533

292 Accurate passesContext 465

78% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.63

12.70 FoulsContext 9.90

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km392 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sunderland	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May	4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 19 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	392 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	90	92.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

17Reinildo 13L. O'Nien 20N. Mukiele 6L. Geertruida

27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka

10N. Angulo 28E. Le Fée 32T. Hume

9B. Brobbey

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1Robert Sánchez(G)

21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 29W. Fofana

3Marc Cucurella 8E. Fernández 25M. Caicedo 27M. Gusto

10C. Palmer

20João Pedro 7Pedro Neto

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sunderland Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sunderland+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Chelsea+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.67points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 8-6-4
Scored: 1.28
Conceded: 1.06

Chelsea · Away 1.44points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 7-5-6
Scored: 1.72
Conceded: 1.39

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Sunderland	Chelsea
Everton	W 3–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Manchester United	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Wolves	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 3–1 AW 3–0 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–5 HW 1–0 A	L 1–3 HW 3–0 A
Aston Villa	L 3–4 AD 1–1 H	W 4–1 AL 1–2 H
Tottenham	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Brighton	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Leeds	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 HL 1–3 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Fulham	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Liverpool	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Arsenal	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Burnley	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
West Ham	L 1–3 AW 3–0 H	W 3–2 HW 5–1 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	W 3–1 AD 0–0 H
Brentford	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Manchester City	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Points	48 of 108 · 1.33 per game	52 of 108 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Sunderland wins0 draws0 Chelsea wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

25 Oct 2025Chelsea1–2Sunderland

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sunderland	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.54
Conceded per game	1.27	1.35
Match goals	2.35	2.89	2.90
Over 1.5	70%	86%
Over 2.5	43%	65%	55%
Over 3.5	19%	32%
Both teams scored	46%	62%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	24%
Failed to score	35%	19%
Games	37	37

	Sunderland	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.90
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.90
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sunderland	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	3.57	6.22
Corners conceded	5.22	4.22
Match total	8.79	10.44	10.08
Over 8.5	57% 21/37	78% 28/36
Over 9.5	43% 16/37	69% 25/36
Over 10.5	30% 11/37	53% 19/36
Cards
Cards	2.16	2.62
Opponent cards	1.89	2.19
Match total	4.05	4.81	3.91
Over 3.5	54% 20/37	70% 26/37
Over 4.5	43% 16/37	57% 21/37

	Sunderland	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.70
Match total	9.80	9.70	10.08
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.00
Opponent cards	2.30	1.40
Match total	4.80	3.40	3.91
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 165 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.79

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+38%league 38%

Fouls21.8league 21.6

Penalties0.22league 0.21

Home wins40%league 43%

Sunderland2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Feb 26H · Liverpool0–11
L21 Feb 23A · Rotherham1–21

Chelsea15 with this referee

Record8-3-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4 Pens for · against4 · 1 Reds1

L12 Apr 26H · Manchester City0–33
W10 Jan 26A · Charlton5–11
W18 Oct 25A · Nottingham Forest3–04
W16 May 25H · Manchester United1–01
W26 Apr 25H · Everton1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.