Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Sunderland had 8 days of rest, Leeds 7.8 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland33%
Draw27%
Leeds40%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Leeds38%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Leeds39%
Sunderland27%
Draw26%
Leeds48%
Sunderland33%
Draw27%
Leeds40%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 78
Team strength
Sunderland
Leeds
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
62
AttackIn forecast
69
59
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandLeeds
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
65%
Scored inContext
71%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.59
ShotsContext
13.06
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
8.76
69%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.76
Shots allowedContext
11.41
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
4.41
BlocksContext
3.53
3.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
79%
Save rateContext
63%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
367
PassesContext
406
290
Accurate passesContext
329
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.12
FoulsContext
10.41
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.12
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
65%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.90
BlocksContext
3.78
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
58%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
354
PassesContext
408
274
Accurate passesContext
331
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.80
FoulsContext
10.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Leeds
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel124 km540 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec | 7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 915 km | 540 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
3D. Cirkin
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
6L. Geertruida
34G. Xhaka
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
9B. Brobbey
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
5P. Struijk
15J. Bijol
6J. Rodon
3G. Gudmundsson
18A. Stach
4E. Ampadu
11B. Aaronson
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Leeds+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-0
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 0.88
Leeds · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 H | L 0–5 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 27 of 48 · 1.69 per game | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Sunderland wins2 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 17 Feb 2025Leeds2–1Sunderland
- 4 Oct 2024Sunderland2–2Leeds
- 9 Apr 2024Leeds0–0Sunderland
- 12 Dec 2023Sunderland1–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 2.12 | 3.24 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 71% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 65% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 29% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Sunderland | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.59 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.20 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 5/17 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.30 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Sunderland | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.67 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.60 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 78 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.72
Red cards0.13league 0.11
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls21.1league 21.6
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins45%league 48%
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25A · Nottingham Forest1–02
- D29 Dec 23A · Rotherham1–11
- W31 Aug 22H · Rotherham3–00
Leeds3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Apr 24A · Middlesbrough4–31
- W5 Nov 22H · Bournemouth4–32
- D13 Aug 22A · Southampton2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland17 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
5
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Leeds17 games · scored 24 · conceded 31
5
4
0-15
4
16-30
8
2
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
4
8
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
5
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
