Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sunderland
7th · 28 pts · 18 played
DLWDD
0–0Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 40 pts · 18 played
WWWWW
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 50). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Sunderland had 4.3 days of rest, Manchester City 5.3 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days4.3 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland13%
Draw19%
Manchester City67%
Sunderland15%
Draw22%
Manchester City63%
Sunderland14%
Draw20%
Manchester City66%
Sunderland9%
Draw16%
Manchester City74%
Sunderland14%
Draw21%
Manchester City65%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 95
Team strength
SunderlandManchester City
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
62
AttackIn forecast
92
59
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandManchester City
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.39
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
67%
Scored inContext
89%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.22
3.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
39%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
69%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.58
14.89
Shots allowedContext
9.39
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
4.50
BlocksContext
2.94
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.28
78%
Save rateContext
71%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
369
PassesContext
564
291
Accurate passesContext
498
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.11
9.94
FoulsContext
9.94
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
14.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
37%
On target shareContext
43%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
65%
Box shareContext
77%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.38
16.30
Shots allowedContext
9.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
5.00
BlocksContext
3.67
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
72%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
359
PassesContext
561
282
Accurate passesContext
496
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.00
FoulsContext
11.10
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel168 km186 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Dec | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 915 km | 186 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
3D. Cirkin
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
34G. Xhaka
6L. Geertruida
24S. Adingra
28E. Le Fée
12Eliezer Mayenda
9B. Brobbey
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly
6N. Aké
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
47P. Foden
14Nico González
20Bernardo Silva
26Savinho
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Manchester City+1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-0
- Scored
- 1.78
- Conceded
- 0.89
Manchester City · Away
1.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Brighton | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | W 5–4 A |
| Arsenal | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 25 of 48 · 1.56 per game | 37 of 48 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sunderland wins0 draws1 Manchester City wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 6 Dec 2025Manchester City3–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 2.39 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 3.33 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 72% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Sunderland | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.70 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 5.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.94 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.82 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 10/18 | 76% 13/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.72 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 3.34 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 9/18 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 7/18 | 28% 5/18 | |
| Sunderland | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.89 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.71
Red cards0.11league 0.11
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls20.1league 21.4
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins40%league 46%
Sunderland2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L7 Oct 23H · Middlesbrough0–45
- D31 Mar 23A · Burnley0–00
Manchester City9 with this referee
Record7-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W16 Aug 25A · Wolves4–02
- W12 Apr 25H · Crystal Palace5–22
- W26 Feb 25A · Tottenham1–00
- D28 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–14
- W25 Apr 24A · Brighton4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland18 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
5
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Manchester City18 games · scored 43 · conceded 17
5
0-15
5
2
16-30
11
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
10
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
9
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
