Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sunderland
7th · 28 pts · 18 played
DLWDD
0–0Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 40 pts · 18 played
WWWWW
Sunderland13.3%fair odds 7.53
Draw19.3%fair odds 5.18
Manchester City67.4%fair odds 1.48
Expected goals0.91 – 2.26total 3.18
Likeliest score0–210.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Manchester City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sunderland ↓ · Manchester City → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sunderland goals, columns Manchester City goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.7%9.36
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 1–19.1%11.02
- 0–19.0%11.14
- 0–38.1%12.40
- 1–37.4%13.57
- 0–04.6%21.63
- 0–44.6%21.89
- 2–24.5%22.44
- 1–44.2%23.97
Winning margin
1.1%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 92.39
3.3%
Sunderland by 2
fair 30.38
8.9%
Sunderland by 1
fair 11.24
19.3%
Draw
fair 5.18
22.7%
Manchester City by 1
fair 4.40
20.2%
Manchester City by 2
fair 4.94
24.4%
Manchester City by 3+
fair 4.10
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Sunderland goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Manchester City goals
10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 13.3% | 14.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 19.3% | 20.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Manchester City win | 67.4% | 65.0% | +2.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% | 56.7% | +4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 51.4% | +2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 0.91 | 0.87 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Manchester City | 2.26 | 2.09 | +0.18 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sunderland win13.3%7.53
- Draw19.3%5.18
- Manchester City win67.4%1.48
- Double chance Sunderland or draw32.6%3.07
- Double chance Sunderland or Manchester City80.7%1.24
- Double chance Manchester City or draw86.7%1.15
- Draw no bet Sunderland16.5%6.08
- Draw no bet Manchester City83.5%1.20
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.0%1.20
- Over 2.561.6%1.62
- Over 3.539.3%2.55
- Over 4.521.5%4.64
- Under 1.517.0%5.90
- Under 2.538.4%2.60
- Under 3.560.7%1.65
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- Sunderland win and yes7.5%13.31
- Draw and yes14.7%6.80
- Manchester City win and yes31.9%3.13
Team goals
- Sunderland over 0.559.9%1.67
- Sunderland over 1.523.2%4.30
- Sunderland over 2.56.5%15.37
- Manchester City over 0.589.6%1.12
- Manchester City over 1.566.1%1.51
- Manchester City over 2.539.5%2.53
- Sunderland clean sheet10.4%9.63
- Manchester City clean sheet40.1%2.49
- Sunderland win to nil5.8%17.36
- Manchester City win to nil35.5%2.82
Handicap
- Sunderland −1.54.4%22.86
- Sunderland −2.51.1%92.39
- Manchester City +1.595.6%1.05
- Manchester City +2.598.9%1.01
- Manchester City −1.544.7%2.24
- Sunderland +1.555.3%1.81
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored188
Favourite won54.3%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right55.9%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 28 | 38.2% | 46.4% |
| 40–50% | 72 | 45.0% | 48.6% |
| 50–60% | 49 | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.3% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 73.4% | 68.8% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 158 of 188 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5897 | 0.5773 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 54.4% | 54.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 158 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 188 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.