Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sunderland
11th · 46 pts · 33 played
WLWWL
0–5Full time
Nottingham Forest
16th · 36 pts · 33 played
DDWDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 56). Sunderland had 5.3 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.3 and had to travel 217 km.
Away travel217 kmRest days5.3 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Sunderland34%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest40%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest39%
Sunderland34%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest40%
Sunderland27%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest47%
Sunderland34%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest39%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 119
Team strength
SunderlandNottingham Forest
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
62
AttackIn forecast
68
59
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandNottingham Forest
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
67%
Scored inContext
58%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
9.97
ShotsContext
12.64
3.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
34%
On target shareContext
31%
7.41
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
70%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.04
OffsidesContext
2.12
14.58
Shots allowedContext
12.36
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.12
4.55
BlocksContext
4.27
3.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
72%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
370
PassesContext
413
291
Accurate passesContext
340
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.52
FoulsContext
10.82
10.97
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.52
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
35%
On target shareContext
35%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
70%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.78
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.20
BlocksContext
2.90
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
67%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
363
PassesContext
427
284
Accurate passesContext
353
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.94
11.60
FoulsContext
11.30
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km543 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel217 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 217 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 543 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
19M. Diarra
11C. Rigg
9B. Brobbey
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
23Jair
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
10M. Gibbs-White
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
21O. Hutchinson
11C. Wood
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 0.88
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.13points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-8
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | L 3–4 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Brighton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fulham | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Burnley | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| West Ham | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 43 of 96 · 1.34 per game | 36 of 96 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Sunderland wins0 draws0 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 27 Sep 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.45 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 52% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 42% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 42% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Sunderland | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.58 | 5.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.18 | 4.82 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.18 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 18/33 | 76% 25/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 15/33 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 10/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.79 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.37 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 18/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 21% 7/33 | |
| Sunderland | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.70 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.50 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.73
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 21.5
Penalties0.27league 0.21
Home wins44%league 42%
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D20 Dec 25A · Brighton0–02
- L22 Nov 25A · Fulham0–13
- D4 Feb 24A · Middlesbrough1–13
Nottingham Forest8 with this referee
Record1-4-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Mar 26A · Manchester City2–24
- D1 Nov 25H · Manchester United2–21
- L13 Sep 25A · Arsenal0–31
- L1 May 25H · Brentford0–23
- W7 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland33 games · scored 36 · conceded 40
2
8
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
10
9
61-75
11
7
76-90
Nottingham Forest33 games · scored 36 · conceded 45
6
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
5
12
31-45
8
7
46-60
6
2
61-75
10
13
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
