Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Wolves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 38). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Sunderland had 14 days of rest, Wolves 13 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sunderland36%
Draw26%
Wolves38%
Sunderland36%
Draw27%
Wolves36%
Sunderland37%
Draw27%
Wolves37%
Sunderland29%
Draw26%
Wolves45%
Sunderland36%
Draw27%
Wolves37%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 125
Team strength
Sunderland
Wolves
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
62
AttackIn forecast
41
59
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWolves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandWolves
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
57%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.43
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
27%
On target shareContext
35%
7.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
75%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.71
Shots allowedContext
12.57
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.71
BlocksContext
4.17
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
86%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
387
PassesContext
403
311
Accurate passesContext
321
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.14
FoulsContext
13.71
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.57
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
40%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
24%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
69%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.30
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.40
BlocksContext
3.38
3.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
81%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
416
PassesContext
430
343
Accurate passesContext
352
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.40
FoulsContext
11.80
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km336 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Wolves
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Wolves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Premier League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13Premier League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 336 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
25B. Traoré
18W. Isidor
Wolves
Confirmed XI
31S. Johnstone(G)
3Hugo Bueno
37L. Krejčí
4S. Bueno
2M. Doherty
8João Gomes
7André
5M. Munetsi
21R. Gomes
9J. Strand Larsen
10J. Arias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Wolves
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Wolves+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Wolves · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.71 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Sunderland | Wolves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.71 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 57% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 11.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 4.14 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Sunderland | Wolves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.01 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 3.83
Red cards0.11league 0.14
Cards 5+40%league 44%
Fouls22.9league 22.3
Penalties0.25league 0.21
Home wins46%league 48%
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W16 Aug 25H · West Ham3–00
- D8 Feb 25H · Watford2–25
- L19 Jan 24H · Hull City0–12
Wolves11 with this referee
Record5-2-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W20 Apr 25A · Manchester United1–03
- W15 Mar 25A · Southampton2–10
- W23 Nov 24A · Fulham4–10
- L4 Nov 23A · Sheffield Utd1–23
- D8 Oct 23H · Aston Villa1–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Wolves7 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Wolves10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
