Tondela vs Santa Clara – 1 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 15:30 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 17th · 18 pts · 23 played LDDDW

2–2Full time

Santa Clara 16th · 18 pts · 23 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tondela were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tondela. Tondela had 8.8 days of rest, Santa Clara 8 and had to travel 1,545 km.

Away travel1,545 kmRest days8.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tondela43%

Draw30%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.26 – 0.95

Tondela42%

Draw27%

Santa Clara31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Tondela43%

Draw30%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.26 – 0.95

Tondela36%

Draw31%

Santa Clara33%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.07

Tondela44%

Draw28%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.03

Over 2.5 38% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 16

Team strength

Tondela

Santa Clara

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

16 AttackIn forecast 29

29 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Santa Clara

0.74 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

43% Scored inContext 57%

17% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.13 ShotsContext 11.52

3.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.52

33% On target shareContext 28%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.48

60% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 7%

2.95 OffsidesContext 2.35

12.83 Shots allowedContext 9.13

5.09 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

3.36 BlocksContext 2.50

3.95 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.74

76% Save rateContext 69%

42% PossessionIn forecast 48%

308 PassesContext 371

242 Accurate passesContext 301

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.17 FoulsContext 14.61

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 14.09

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.96

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 0.85

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

60% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.10 ShotsContext 11.70

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

32% On target shareContext 23%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

64% Box shareContext 48%

11% ConversionContext 6%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.57

11.70 Shots allowedContext 8.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.10 BlocksContext 2.88

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

81% Save rateContext 60%

39% PossessionIn forecast 50%

303 PassesContext 378

235 Accurate passesContext 307

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.69

14.30 FoulsContext 15.90

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,545 km2,909 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Feb	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,545 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	439 km	2,909 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

5-4-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

27Rodrigo Conceição 20Brayan Medina 4Christian Marques 44João Silva 2Bebeto

79Hugo Félix 32Juan Rodríguez 10J. Hodge 7Pedro Henryque

23B. Mbunga Kimpioka

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

5Guilherme Romão 94Henrique Silva 23Sidney Lima 2Diogo Calila

65José Tavares 8Pedro Ferreira 35Serginho

70Vinícius Lopes 26Fernando 10Gabriel Silva

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.64points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-6
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 1.27

Santa Clara · Away 0.64points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-4-6
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Tondela	Santa Clara
Estrela	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Estoril	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A
Benfica	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Famalicao	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 A
Moreirense	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
Arouca	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 H
Casa Pia	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Nacional	L 1–3 A	D 3–3 A
FC Porto	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 H
GIL Vicente	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Guimaraes	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
AVS	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Sporting CP	L 0–3 H	L 1–2 H
Rio Ave	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Points	15 of 66 · 0.68 per game	18 of 66 · 0.82 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Tondela wins0 draws0 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Sep 2025Santa Clara1–2Tondela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	0.74	0.78
Conceded per game	1.57	1.26
Match goals	2.30	2.04	2.22
Over 1.5	65%	52%
Over 2.5	52%	35%	38%
Over 3.5	22%	9%
Both teams scored	35%	43%	45%
Clean sheets	17%	22%
Failed to score	57%	43%
Games	23	23

	Tondela	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.70
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.40	2.20	2.22
Over 1.5	70%	40%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	38%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	40%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	4.16
Corners conceded	5.57	4.74
Match total	9.27	8.90	9.20
Over 8.5	48% 11/23	58% 11/19
Over 9.5	39% 9/23	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	35% 8/23	26% 5/19
Cards
Cards	2.78	3.13
Opponent cards	2.17	3.00
Match total	4.95	6.13	5.17
Over 3.5	70% 16/23	87% 20/23
Over 4.5	48% 11/23	65% 15/23

	Tondela	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	3.90
Corners conceded	5.50	4.30
Match total	9.70	8.20	9.20
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.90
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	5.10	5.40	5.17
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.84

Red cards0.13league 0.27

Cards 5+38%league 58%

Fouls27.6league 26.9

Penalties0.31league 0.44

Home wins50%league 42%

Tondela1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L23 Aug 25A · Benfica0–32

Santa Clara1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W25 Oct 24H · GIL Vicente2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.