Tondela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Tondela42.7%fair odds 2.34
Draw29.9%fair odds 3.34
Santa Clara27.3%fair odds 3.66
Expected goals1.26 – 0.95total 2.22
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Tondela ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Tondela goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.24
- 1–013.0%7.66
- 0–011.6%8.64
- 0–19.7%10.32
- 2–08.7%11.52
- 2–18.3%12.06
- 1–26.3%15.96
- 0–25.0%20.16
- 2–24.0%25.26
- 3–03.7%27.35
Winning margin
6.8%
Tondela by 3+
fair 14.69
12.7%
Tondela by 2
fair 7.85
23.2%
Tondela by 1
fair 4.31
29.9%
Draw
fair 3.34
17.4%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 5.76
7.3%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 13.73
2.7%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 37.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
12%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
11%4
7%5+
Tondela goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Santa Clara goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tondela win | 42.7% | 44.4% | -1.7 pp |
| Draw | 29.9% | 28.4% | +1.5 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 27.3% | 27.2% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 38.2% | 43.3% | -5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.8% | 48.8% | -4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Tondela | 1.26 | 1.39 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.95 | 1.03 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Tondela win42.7%2.34
- Draw29.9%3.34
- Santa Clara win27.3%3.66
- Double chance Tondela or draw72.7%1.38
- Double chance Tondela or Santa Clara70.1%1.43
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw57.3%1.75
- Draw no bet Tondela61.0%1.64
- Draw no bet Santa Clara39.0%2.56
Goals
- Over 0.588.4%1.13
- Over 1.565.7%1.52
- Over 2.538.2%2.62
- Over 3.518.4%5.43
- Over 4.57.4%13.43
- Under 1.534.3%2.91
- Under 2.561.8%1.62
- Under 3.581.6%1.23
Both teams to score
- Yes44.8%2.23
- No55.2%1.81
- Yes and over 2.531.0%3.23
- Tondela win and yes15.8%6.32
- Draw and yes18.4%5.45
- Santa Clara win and yes10.6%9.40
Team goals
- Tondela over 0.571.7%1.39
- Tondela over 1.536.0%2.78
- Tondela over 2.513.5%7.43
- Santa Clara over 0.561.5%1.63
- Santa Clara over 1.524.8%4.04
- Santa Clara over 2.57.2%13.85
- Tondela clean sheet38.5%2.60
- Santa Clara clean sheet28.3%3.54
- Tondela win to nil26.9%3.72
- Santa Clara win to nil16.7%5.99
Handicap
- Tondela −1.519.6%5.11
- Tondela −2.56.8%14.69
- Santa Clara +1.580.4%1.24
- Santa Clara +2.593.2%1.07
- Santa Clara −1.510.0%10.02
- Tondela +1.590.0%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored212
Favourite won61.8%
Avg chance given to result45.0%
1X2 Brier0.524
Over 2.5 called right58.0%
BTTS called right56.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 37.7% | 46.3% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.7% | 50.7% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.6% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 65.4% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 75.2% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 212 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5161 | 0.5035 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 63.3% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 212 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.