Tottenham vs Brentford – 6 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 15:00 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 11th · 19 pts · 14 played LDLLD

2–0Full time

Brentford 13th · 19 pts · 14 played LWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Tottenham were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Tottenham had 3.8 days of rest, Brentford 2.8 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days3.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Tottenham43%

Draw26%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.28

Tottenham42%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Tottenham43%

Draw26%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.26

Tottenham35%

Draw27%

Brentford38%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.43

Tottenham42%

Draw27%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.23

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 131

Team strength

Tottenham

Brentford

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 72

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

56 AttackIn forecast 73

74 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Brentford

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.73 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

86% Scored inContext 79%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

9.43 ShotsContext 10.50

3.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

33% On target shareContext 40%

7.08 Shots in the boxContext 8.42

70% Box shareContext 73%

17% ConversionContext 14%

2.15 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.21 Shots allowedContext 12.07

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.79

2.77 BlocksContext 4.00

3.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.62

74% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 43%

429 PassesContext 353

357 Accurate passesContext 274

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.79 FoulsContext 11.71

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.77

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.10 ShotsContext 11.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 40%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

71% Box shareContext 72%

19% ConversionContext 14%

1.90 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.20 Shots allowedContext 11.30

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.60 BlocksContext 3.60

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

68% Save rateContext 69%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

399 PassesContext 378

328 Accurate passesContext 294

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.67 FoulsContext 11.30

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 8.67

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel13 km168 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Dec	2.8Premier League 2025-2026, 3 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	168 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

14A. Gray 30R. Bentancur

39R. Kolo Muani 7X. Simons 20M. Kudus

9Richarlison

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

20K. Ajer 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

18Y. Yarmoliuk 6J. Henderson

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham-0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brentford+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 0.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.29

Brentford · Away 0.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-6
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Brentford
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Fulham	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 A	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	W 3–1 H
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Brighton	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
West Ham	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 A
Manchester City	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 H
Burnley	W 3–0 H	W 3–1 H
Points	12 of 30 · 1.20 per game	16 of 30 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Tottenham wins3 draws1 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.88 – 1.25 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%

2 Feb 2025Brentford0–2Tottenham
21 Sep 2024Tottenham3–1Brentford
31 Jan 2024Tottenham3–2Brentford
13 Aug 2023Brentford2–2Tottenham
20 May 2023Tottenham1–3Brentford
26 Dec 2022Brentford2–2Tottenham

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	1.50
Conceded per game	1.29	1.57
Match goals	2.93	3.07	2.82
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	71%	64%	53%
Over 3.5	29%	50%
Both teams scored	57%	64%	57%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	14%	21%
Games	14	14

	Tottenham	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.50
Match goals	3.20	3.10	2.82
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	6.46	5.43
Corners conceded	5.31	4.57
Match total	11.77	10.00	9.90
Over 8.5	77% 10/13	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	69% 9/13	64% 9/14
Over 10.5	62% 8/13	57% 8/14
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.86
Opponent cards	1.36	2.00
Match total	3.86	3.86	3.75
Over 3.5	57% 8/14	57% 8/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	50% 7/14

	Tottenham	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	6.00
Corners conceded	5.60	4.10
Match total	10.90	10.10	9.90
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.80
Opponent cards	1.20	2.00
Match total	3.60	3.80	3.75
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 131 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 3.64

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls22.9league 21.9

Penalties0.24league 0.19

Home wins46%league 49%

Tottenham10 with this referee

Record2-2-6 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 3

L25 May 25H · Brighton1–43
L26 Jan 25H · Leicester1–21
L1 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–24
L2 May 24A · Chelsea0–21
L16 Mar 24A · Fulham0–33

Brentford5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L9 Mar 24A · Arsenal1–24
L30 Dec 23A · Crystal Palace1–31
D13 Aug 23H · Tottenham2–21
W3 Sep 22H · Leeds5–22
D20 Nov 21A · Newcastle3–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.