Tottenham vs Brighton – 18 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 33 Sat, Apr 18 · 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 18th · 30 pts · 32 played LLDLL

2–2Full time

Brighton 10th · 46 pts · 32 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Brighton. Tottenham had 6.1 days of rest, Brighton 7.1 and had to travel 72 km.

Away travel72 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tottenham27%

Draw24%

Brighton49%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.80

Tottenham31%

Draw27%

Brighton42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Tottenham27%

Draw25%

Brighton48%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.74

Tottenham21%

Draw22%

Brighton57%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.02

Tottenham27%

Draw25%

Brighton48%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.68

Over 2.5 60% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 137

Team strength

Tottenham

Brighton

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

56 AttackIn forecast 87

74 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Brighton

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.34

1.59 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.16

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

78% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.16 ShotsContext 12.84

3.91 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 35%

7.84 Shots in the boxContext 8.25

69% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.81 OffsidesContext 2.27

12.84 Shots allowedContext 12.13

4.28 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.97

3.55 BlocksContext 3.50

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.84

65% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

409 PassesContext 469

332 Accurate passesContext 393

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.75 FoulsContext 12.03

9.91 Fouls sufferedContext 10.16

2.47 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

70% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.80 ShotsContext 11.70

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

39% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

67% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 9%

1.14 OffsidesContext 2.22

15.80 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

5.00 BlocksContext 3.13

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

57% Save rateContext 81%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

368 PassesContext 472

292 Accurate passesContext 389

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.90 FoulsContext 12.00

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km774 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel72 km715 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	774 km	715 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31A. Kinský(G)

13I. Udogie 37M. van de Ven 4K. Danso 23Pedro Porro

8Y. Bissouma 30R. Bentancur 22C. Gallagher

7X. Simons 19D. Solanke 39R. Kolo Muani

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 21O. Boscagli 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

30P. Groß 26Y. Ayari

11Y. Minteh 13J. Hinshelwood 25D. Gómez

18D. Welbeck

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham-0.5 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Brighton+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 0.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-10
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.75

Brighton · Away 1.19points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 5-4-7
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Brighton
Sunderland	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Liverpool	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–3 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Fulham	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Arsenal	L 1–4 HL 1–4 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Newcastle	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Manchester United	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 2–4 A
Manchester City	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Burnley	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H
West Ham	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Brentford	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 A
Everton	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H
Leeds	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 H
Wolves	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	29 of 93 · 0.94 per game	45 of 93 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Tottenham wins1 draws5 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

20 Sep 2025Brighton2–2Tottenham
25 May 2025Tottenham1–4Brighton
6 Oct 2024Brighton3–2Tottenham
10 Feb 2024Tottenham2–1Brighton
28 Dec 2023Brighton4–2Tottenham
8 Apr 2023Tottenham2–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.34
Conceded per game	1.59	1.16
Match goals	2.84	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	84%	81%
Over 2.5	66%	44%	60%
Over 3.5	28%	16%
Both teams scored	59%	59%	61%
Clean sheets	22%	25%
Failed to score	22%	22%
Games	32	32

	Tottenham	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	2.20	0.80
Match goals	3.10	1.90	3.08
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	4.66
Corners conceded	4.70	4.94
Match total	10.27	9.60	10.06
Over 8.5	57% 17/30	59% 19/32
Over 9.5	50% 15/30	56% 18/32
Over 10.5	43% 13/30	41% 13/32
Cards
Cards	2.59	2.50
Opponent cards	1.81	2.09
Match total	4.40	4.59	3.90
Over 3.5	66% 21/32	69% 22/32
Over 4.5	56% 18/32	44% 14/32

	Tottenham	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	4.00
Corners conceded	4.89	5.50
Match total	10.33	9.50	10.06
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.30
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	4.60	4.20	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 137 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.99league 3.76

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+45%league 39%

Fouls21.0league 21.5

Penalties0.21league 0.22

Home wins47%league 42%

Tottenham11 with this referee

Record8-1-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

D4 Jan 26H · Sunderland1–12
L29 Nov 25H · Fulham1–23
W23 Dec 23H · Everton2–11
W8 Apr 23H · Brighton2–13
W26 Feb 23H · Chelsea2–02

Brighton14 with this referee

Record7-4-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds3

L24 Aug 25A · Everton0–23
L2 Apr 25H · Aston Villa0–32
D8 Dec 24A · Leicester2–22
W23 Nov 24A · Bournemouth2–14
W18 Feb 24A · Sheffield Utd5–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.