Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Tottenham were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Tottenham. Tottenham had 4.8 days of rest, Everton 7 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Tottenham47%
Draw25%
Everton29%
Tottenham41%
Draw27%
Everton32%
Tottenham47%
Draw25%
Everton29%
Tottenham39%
Draw25%
Everton36%
Tottenham46%
Draw25%
Everton29%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichael Oliver
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 200
Team strength
Tottenham
Everton
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
56
AttackIn forecast
61
74
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamEverton
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
81%
Scored inContext
76%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.24
ShotsContext
11.14
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.94
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
69%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.84
OffsidesContext
2.08
12.35
Shots allowedContext
13.81
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.42
BlocksContext
4.53
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
64%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
414
PassesContext
381
338
Accurate passesContext
303
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.05
FoulsContext
10.62
9.97
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.40
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
42%
On target shareContext
46%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
70%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.40
BlocksContext
5.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
60%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
413
PassesContext
376
341
Accurate passesContext
300
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.80
FoulsContext
10.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 19 May | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90.1 | 90 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
13I. Udogie
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
6João Palhinha
30R. Bentancur
11M. Tel
22C. Gallagher
24D. Spence
9Richarlison
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
42T. Iroegbunam
37J. Garner
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Everton+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.67points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-10
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.72
Everton · Away
1.44points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-6
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.22
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Aston Villa | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 1–3 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Newcastle | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| West Ham | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H |
| Points | 35 of 108 · 0.97 per game | 49 of 108 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Tottenham wins4 draws1 Everton wins
Goals per game2.30 – 0.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 10%
- 26 Oct 2025Everton0–3Tottenham
- 19 Jan 2025Everton3–2Tottenham
- 24 Aug 2024Tottenham4–0Everton
- 3 Feb 2024Everton2–2Tottenham
- 23 Dec 2023Tottenham2–1Everton
- 3 Apr 2023Everton1–1Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.59 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 51% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 24% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Tottenham | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.77 | 4.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.08 | |
| Match total | 10.37 | 9.43 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 21/35 | 65% 24/37 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 19/35 | 43% 16/37 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 15/35 | 38% 14/37 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.73 | 2.03 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.59 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 26/37 | 46% 17/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 21/37 | 41% 15/37 | |
| Tottenham | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.40 | 10.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 2.90 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.79
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+35%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins43%league 43%
Tottenham15 with this referee
Record4-4-7
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds4
- L22 Mar 26H · Nottingham Forest0–31
- L7 Feb 26A · Manchester United0–23
- L23 Nov 25A · Arsenal1–43
- W16 Aug 25H · Burnley3–00
- D4 May 25A · West Ham1–12
Everton23 with this referee
Record8-7-8
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against4 · 0
Reds5
- D4 May 26H · Manchester City3–34
- W30 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest2–00
- W30 Aug 25A · Wolves3–21
- W18 May 25H · Southampton2–01
- D12 Feb 25H · Liverpool2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham37 games · scored 47 · conceded 57
4
7
0-15
5
4
16-30
10
19
31-45
8
5
46-60
7
8
61-75
13
14
76-90
Everton37 games · scored 47 · conceded 49
4
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
15
15
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
11
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
