Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Tottenham
15th · 28 pts · 23 played
DDLLD
2–2Full time
Manchester City
2nd · 46 pts · 23 played
DDDLW
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Tottenham had 8.1 days of rest, Manchester City 8.1 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Tottenham31%
Draw25%
Manchester City43%
Tottenham28%
Draw27%
Manchester City45%
Tottenham32%
Draw26%
Manchester City42%
Tottenham25%
Draw24%
Manchester City51%
Tottenham32%
Draw27%
Manchester City42%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeRobert Jones
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 136
Team strength
TottenhamManchester City
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
88
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
56
AttackIn forecast
92
74
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamManchester City
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.04
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
83%
Scored inContext
83%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
11.00
ShotsContext
14.09
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.95
Shots in the boxContext
10.52
70%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.56
11.61
Shots allowedContext
9.35
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.05
BlocksContext
2.81
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.39
70%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
426
PassesContext
576
349
Accurate passesContext
508
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.09
10.83
FoulsContext
9.87
9.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.22
2.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
14.80
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
37%
On target shareContext
35%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
69%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.22
10.20
Shots allowedContext
7.90
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
436
PassesContext
641
356
Accurate passesContext
575
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.20
FoulsContext
10.00
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km583 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 583 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
1G. Vicario(G)
3R. Drăgușin
17C. Romero
6João Palhinha
13I. Udogie
8Y. Bissouma
22C. Gallagher
14A. Gray
7X. Simons
39R. Kolo Muani
19D. Solanke
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
45A. Khusanov
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
42A. Semenyo
33N. O'Reilly
20Bernardo Silva
10M. Cherki
9E. Haaland
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Manchester City+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.27
Manchester City · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 5–1 H |
| West Ham | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bournemouth | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brentford | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Newcastle | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 H | W 5–4 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Everton | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Wolves | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Brighton | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 25 of 66 · 1.14 per game | 46 of 66 · 2.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Tottenham wins1 draws4 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets40% · 30%
- 23 Aug 2025Manchester City0–2Tottenham
- 26 Feb 2025Tottenham0–1Manchester City
- 23 Nov 2024Manchester City0–4Tottenham
- 14 May 2024Tottenham0–2Manchester City
- 3 Dec 2023Manchester City3–3Tottenham
- 5 Feb 2023Tottenham1–0Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 2.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.96 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 57% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Tottenham | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.59 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 3.95 | |
| Match total | 10.32 | 9.54 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 10/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.65 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.66 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Tottenham | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 9.11 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Jones 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.71
Red cards0.10league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 21.2
Penalties0.24league 0.21
Home wins46%league 45%
Tottenham11 with this referee
Record3-2-6
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 3
- W6 Dec 25H · Brentford2–03
- L25 May 25H · Brighton1–43
- L26 Jan 25H · Leicester1–21
- L1 Sep 24A · Newcastle1–24
- L2 May 24A · Chelsea0–21
Manchester City9 with this referee
Record8-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- W27 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest2–12
- W27 Sep 25H · Burnley5–11
- D7 Dec 24A · Crystal Palace2–22
- W21 Oct 23H · Brighton2–14
- W19 Aug 23H · Newcastle1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham23 games · scored 33 · conceded 31
3
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
6
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
10
9
76-90
Manchester City23 games · scored 47 · conceded 21
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
14
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
10
6
61-75
6
5
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
